Here's a look at some of my preseason projections for offensive players. First up is a run-through of some of the notable projections by position. At the end of the column is a chart looking at my OPS projections.
Next to each player's name and team are his preseason AL- or NL-only dollar ranking and his overall position ranking.
Catchers
Preseason Top 5
Victor Martinez - Indians - $25 - #1
Projection: .304/.381/.482, 22 HR, 80 R, 100 RBI, 0 SB in 552 AB
2008stats: .278/.337/.365, 2 HR, 30 R, 35 RBI, 0 SB in 266 AB
Joe Mauer - Twins - $25 - #2
Projection: .325/.420/.491, 14 HR, 87 R, 73 RBI, 8 SB in 493 AB
2008stats: .328/.413/.451, 9 HR, 98 R, 85 RBI, 1 SB in 536 AB
Annual AB/HR: 2004 - 17.8 (107 AB/6 HR), 2005 - 54.3, 2006 - 40.1, 2007 - 58.0, 2008 - 59.6. Mauer didn't necessarily project as a potential 30-homer guy when he came up, but it's bizarre that he hasn't added any power at all at ages 24 and 25.
Sports
Russell Martin - Dodgers - $25 - #3
Projection: .290/.369/.459, 17 HR, 84 R, 77 RBI, 13 SB in 514 AB
2008stats: .280/.385/.396, 13 HR, 87 R, 69 RBI, 18 SB in 553 AB
Was overworked by Joe Torre and wore down again. .294/.394/.436 in first half, .260/.371/.336 afterwards.
Brian McCann - Braves - $19 - #4
Projection: .286/.347/.484, 21 HR, 62 R, 87 RBI, 1 SB in 469 AB
2008stats: .301/.373/.523, 23 HR, 68 R, 87 RBI, 5 SB in 509 AB
Jorge Posada - Yankees - $18 - #5
Projection: .271/.377/.459, 20 HR, 76 R, 85 RBI, 1 SB in 473 AB
2008stats: .268/.364/.411, 3 HR, 18 R, 22 RBI, 0 SB in 168 AB
Others
Ryan Doumit - Pirates - $5 - #21
Projection: .280/.349/.463, 11 HR, 37 R, 45 RBI, 2 SB in 307 AB
2008stats: .318/.357/.501, 15 HR, 71 R, 69 RBI, 2 SB in 431 AB
Chris Iannetta - Rockies - $1 - #35
Projection: .268/.361/.415, 5 HR, 27 R, 28 RBI, 1 SB in 205 AB
2008stats: .264/.390/.504, 18 HR, 50 R, 65 RBI, 0 SB in 333 AB
I gave him a better line than Yorvit Torrealba, but the 18 homers were a big surprise. I would have had him hitting eight if I projected him for that many at-bats.
Kenji Johjima - Mariners - $13 - #7
Projection: .282/.332/.430, 15 HR, 56 R, 68 RBI, 2 SB in 479 AB
2008stats: .227/.277/.332, 7 HR, 29 R, 39 RBI, 2 SB in 379 AB
Bengie Molina - Giants - $11 - #10
Projection: .275/.308/.420, 16 HR, 43 R, 70 RBI, 0 SB in 455 AB
2008stats: .292/.322/.445, 16 HR, 46 R, 95 RBI, 0 SB in 530 AB
The only guy in baseball who couldn't even score on all of his homers. Incredibly, he had 522 at-bats from the cleanup spot and was driven in just 31 times all year. Still, his runs scored total was his highest since 2000.
A.J. Pierzynski - White Sox - $12 - #9
Projection: .277/.320/.419, 15 HR, 56 R, 65 RBI, 1 SB in 477 AB
2008stats: .281/.312/.416, 13 HR, 66 R, 60 RBI, 1 SB in 534 AB
Ivan Rodriguez - Tigers/Yankees - $14 - #6
Projection: .284/.314/.419, 11 HR, 69 R, 69 RBI, 4 SB in 504 AB
2008stats: .276/.319/.394, 7 HR, 44 R, 35 RBI, 10 SB in 398 AB
Had more steals (four) than RBI (three) in his two months with the Yankees.
Kelly Shoppach - Indians - $1 - #40
Projection: .247/.311/.429, 6 HR, 19 R, 24 RBI, 0 SB in 154 AB
2008stats: .261/.348/.517, 21 HR, 67 R, 55 RBI, 0 SB in 352 AB
Shoppach's 20-homer power is legit, but I do expect his average and OBP to tumble if he becomes a regular next year. He fanned 133 times in just 352 at-bats. His average when he didn't strike out was an unsustainable .420.
Geovany Soto - Cubs - $10 - #11
Projection: .270/.346/.448, 17 HR, 48 R, 61 RBI, 0 SB in 404 AB
2008stats: .285/.364/.504, 23 HR, 66 R, 86 RBI, 0 SB in 494 AB
I have rookie review columns coming up the next two weeks, so I'll refrain from commenting on first-year players here.
First Basemen
Preseason Top 5
Albert Pujols - Cardinals - $36 - #1
Projection: .323/.432/.618, 41 HR, 116 R, 112 RBI, 6 SB in 563 AB
2008stats: .357/.462/.653, 37 HR, 100 R, 116 RBI, 7 SB in 524 AB
This worked out pretty well as a fantasy projection, even though I missed by 65 points of OPS. It was very disappointing that Pujols was driven in just 63 times after his 106 singles, 44 doubles and 104 walks. Pujols should be scoring 120 or more runs per year with these kind of numbers. He scored 137 runs in 2003 with practically the same line that he had this year (though he did play in nine more games then).
Ryan Howard - Phillies - $33 - #2
Projection: .273/.395/.601, 53 HR, 107 R, 133 RBI, 0 SB in 579 AB
2008stats: .251/.339/.543, 48 HR, 105 R, 146 RBI, 1 SB in 610 AB
Prince Fielder - Brewers - $32 - #3
Projection: .294/.406/.592, 44 HR, 105 R, 123 RBI, 4 SB in 564 AB
2008stats: .276/.372/.507, 34 HR, 86 R, 102 RBI, 3 SB in 588 AB
I thought Fielder would have his 2008 season in 2007 and his 2007 season in 2008. I projected him to hit .277/.359/.510 with 31 homers in 2007. Of course, he went on to hit .288/.395/.618 with 50 homers then.
Mark Teixeira - Braves/Angels - $31 - #4
Projection: .303/.397/.557, 36 HR, 106 R, 126 RBI, 2 SB in 610 AB
2008stats: .308/.410/.552, 33 HR, 102 R, 121 RBI, 2 SB in 574 AB
Justin Morneau - Angels - $29 - #5
Projection: .290/.366/.537, 37 HR, 94 R, 117 RBI, 1 SB in 600 AB
2008stats: .300/.374/.499, 23 HR, 97 R, 129 RBI, 0 SB in 623 AB
Others
Lance Berkman - Astros - $25 - #6
Projection: .293/.405/.540, 32 HR, 102 R, 106 RBI, 4 SB in 543 AB
2008stats: .312/.420/.567, 29 HR, 114 R, 106 RBI, 18 SB in 554 AB
Carlos Delgado - Mets - $15 - #14
Projection: .262/.359/.486, 27 HR, 80 R, 102 RBI, 1 SB in 512 AB
2008stats: .271/.353/.518, 38 HR, 96 R, 115 RBI, 1 SB in 598 AB
Jason Giambi - Yankees - $7 - DH #7
Projection: .251/.389/.487, 24 HR, 61 R, 73 RBI, 1 SB in 378 AB
2008stats: .247/.373/.502, 32 HR, 69 R, 96 RBI, 2 SB in 458 AB
Perfect OPS projection, lousy fantasy projection. I didn't see Giambi staying healthy while being asked to play first base.
Adrian Gonzalez - Padres - $18 - #11
Projection: .291/.358/.470, 22 HR, 89 R, 95 RBI, 1 SB in 611 AB
2008stats: .279/.371/.510, 36 HR, 103 R, 119 RBI, 0 SB in 616 AB
36 homers as a Petco player is incredible, especially from someone who looked like a potential 20-homer guy at best while climbing through the minors.
Travis Hafner - Indians - $26 - DH #2
Projection: .289/.406/.547, 34 HR, 103 R, 114 RBI, 0 SB in 530 AB
2008stats: .197/.305/.323, 5 HR, 21 R, 24 RBI, 1 SB in 198 AB
Aubrey Huff - Rays - $10 - #21
Projection: .275/.337/.451, 21 HR, 67 R, 80 RBI, 2 SB in 534 AB
2008stats: .304/.360/.552, 32 HR, 96 R, 108 RBI, 4 SB in 598 AB
Derrek Lee - Cubs - $24 - #7
Projection: .296/.385/.509, 28 HR, 103 R, 93 RBI, 8 SB in 582 AB
2008stats: .291/.361/.462, 20 HR, 93 R, 90 RBI, 8 SB in 623 AB
The Cubs led the league in runs scored, but Lee could manage just 183 runs+RBI while always hitting in the middle of the order. No one really cares, since the Cubs ran away with the Central anyway, but it was a particularly disappointing year for the two-time All-Star. He ranked eighth in the NL in outs made. Only Miguel Tejada grounded into more double plays.
David Ortiz - Red Sox - $31 - DH #1
Projection: .296/.419/.594, 41 HR, 110 R, 128 RBI, 1 SB in 554 AB
2008stats: .264/.369/.507, 23 HR, 74 R, 89 RBI, 1 SB in 416 AB
Joey Votto - Reds - $5 - #27
Projection: .273/.337/.466, 13 HR, 45 R, 52 RBI, 5 SB in 337 AB
2008stats: .297/.368/.506, 24 HR, 69 R, 84 RBI, 7 SB in 526 AB
Kevin Youkilis - Red Sox - $15 - #15
Projection: .277/.382/.441, 17 HR, 102 R, 79 RBI, 3 SB in 567 AB
2008stats: .312/.390/.569, 29 HR, 91 R, 115 RBI, 3 SB in 538 AB
Second Basemen
Preseason Top 5
B.J. Upton - Rays - $37 - #1
Projection: .291/.373/.501, 29 HR, 101 R, 103 RBI, 31 SB in 609 AB
2008stats: .273/.383/.401, 9 HR, 85 R, 67 RBI, 44 SB in 531 AB
Shoulder problems seemed to be at the root of Upton's decline in power, but he certainly hasn't had any trouble hitting bombs this month. Given his upside, I'll probably have him ranked as a top-five outfielder next spring.
Chase Utley - Phillies - $36 - #2
Projection: .303/.385/.529, 31 HR, 119 R, 111 RBI, 12 SB in 628 AB
2008stats: .292/.380/.535, 33 HR, 113 R, 104 RBI, 14 SB in 607 AB
Brandon Phillips - Reds - $34 - #3
Projection: .291/.337/.485, 28 HR, 99 R, 97 RBI, 30 SB in 635 AB
2008stats: .261/.312/.442, 21 HR, 80 R, 78 RBI, 23 SB in 559 AB
Taking his numbers to 635 at-bats -- which is about what he would have finished at if he hadn't suffered a broken finger -- Phillips was on pace for 24 HR, 91 R, 89 RBI and 26 SB. Still, the .261 average was quite a disappointment.
Robinson Cano - Yankees - $29 - #4
Projection: .320/.366/.517, 23 HR, 102 R, 108 RBI, 5 SB in 625 AB
2008stats: .271/.305/.410, 14 HR, 70 R, 72 RBI, 2 SB in 597 AB
Ian Kinsler - Rangers - $25 - #5
Projection: .282/.360/.467, 24 HR, 110 R, 75 RBI, 20 SB in 606 AB
2008stats: .319/.375/.516, 18 HR, 102 R, 71 RBI, 26 SB in 518 AB
Others
Mark DeRosa - Cubs - $5 - #25
Projection: .276/.348/.404, 11 HR, 67 R, 65 RBI, 3 SB in 497 AB
2008stats: .285/.376/.481, 21 HR, 103 R, 87 RBI, 6 SB in 505 AB
Derrek Lee had 183 R+RBI in 623 at-bats, all but two of them coming as a No. 3 hitter. DeRosa had 190 in 505 at-bats, most coming from the sixth and seventh spots in the order. Lee made 475 outs, while DeRosa made just 380.
Kelly Johnson - Braves - $14 - #14
Projection: .273/.366/.445, 16 HR, 97 R, 63 RBI, 12 SB in 546 AB
2008stats: .287/.349/.446, 12 HR, 86 R, 69 RBI, 11 SB in 547 AB
Jose Lopez - Mariners - $9 - #18
Projection: .274/.313/.421, 14 HR, 75 R, 70 RBI, 5 SB in 563 AB
2008stats: .297/.322/.443, 17 HR, 80 R, 89 RBI, 6 SB in 644 AB
Dustin Pedroia - Red Sox -
Projection: .307/.378/.440, 11 HR, 105 R, 59 RBI, 6 SB in 580 AB
2008stats: .326/.376/.493, 17 HR, 118 R, 83 RBI, 20 SB in 653 AB
Placido Polanco - Tigers - $14 - #13
Projection: .303/.347/.415, 9 HR, 101 R, 64 RBI, 5 SB in 568 AB
2008stats: .307/.350/.417, 8 HR, 90 R, 58 RBI, 7 SB in 580 AB
Many thought the Tigers would score 1,000 runs, though that was pretty clearly a reach. This would have been pretty close to the perfect projection had they scored 900 or so. Instead, they finished at 821.
Alexei Ramirez - White Sox - $2 - OF #115
Projection: .261/.305/.431, 10 HR, 37 R, 44 RBI, 5 SB in 295 AB
2008stats: .290/.317/.475, 21 HR, 65 R, 77 RBI, 13 SB in 480 AB
Brian Roberts - Orioles - $23 - #7
Projection: .283/.360/.413, 11 HR, 97 R, 53 RBI, 40 SB in 593 AB
2008stats: .296/.378/.450, 9 HR, 107 R, 57 RBI, 40 SB in 611 AB
Dan Uggla - Marlins - $16 - #10
Projection: .254/.330/.454, 26 HR, 97 R, 86 RBI, 6 SB in 619 AB
2008stats: .260/.360/.514, 32 HR, 97 R, 92 RBI, 5 SB in 531 AB
That this one doesn't look so bad is mostly because Uggla was moved down in the order and held to 531 at-bats. I had him hitting a homer every 23.8 at-bats. He actually hit one every 16.6, which would have given him 37 in 619 at-bats.
Rickie Weeks - Brewers - $18 - #8
Projection: .275/.382/.455, 17 HR, 94 R, 54 RBI, 25 SB in 483 AB
2008stats: .234/.342/.398, 14 HR, 89 R, 46 RBI, 19 SB in 475 AB
Third Basemen
Preseason Top 5
Alex Rodriguez - Yankees - $43 - #1
Projection: .300/.406/.584, 44 HR, 125 R, 129 RBI, 17 SB in 586 AB
2008stats: .302/.392/.573, 35 HR, 104 R, 103 RBI, 18 SB in 510 AB
If he stayed at his current pace through 586 at-bats, he would have finished with 40 homers, 119 runs and 118 RBI.
David Wright - Mets - $39 - #2
Projection: .317/.411/.557, 32 HR, 121 R, 109 RBI, 24 SB in 612 AB
2008stats: .302/.390/.534, 33 HR, 115 R, 124 RBI, 15 SB in 626 AB
It's bizarre that Wright finished with 124 RBI when he hit .243 with four homers in 189 at-bats with RISP. It helped that he hit .360/.448/.768 with just a runner on first base.
Ryan Braun - Brewers - $37 - #3
Projection: .301/.359/.558, 36 HR, 123 R, 106 RBI, 21 SB in 634 AB
2008stats: .285/.335/.553, 37 HR, 92 R, 106 RBI, 14 SB in 611 AB
I had Braun finishing among the league leaders in runs scored, but he ended up with just one more run in 151 games this year than he did in 113 games as a rookie. Disappointing years from Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Bill Hall played big roles.
Miguel Cabrera - Marlins - $36 - #4
Projection: .314/.386/.584, 38 HR, 117 R, 119 RBI, 3 SB in 599 AB
2008stats: .292/.349/.537, 37 HR, 85 R, 127 RBI, 1 SB in 616 AB
I should have lowered Cabrera's run projection when the decision was made to bat him fifth, but I didn't think he'd stay there. He did score 36 times in 58 games from the third or fourth spot, but that still would have put him on pace for a mere 99 on the season.
Chone Figgins - Angels - $28 - #5
Projection: .288/.354/.396, 7 HR, 103 R, 65 RBI, 50 SB in 601 AB
2008stats: .276/.367/.318, 1 HR, 72 R, 22 RBI, 34 SB in 453 AB
Others
Garrett Atkins - Rockies - $24 - #7
Projection: .316/.387/.500, 23 HR, 93 R, 105 RBI, 2 SB in 610 AB
2008stats: .286/.328/.452, 21 HR, 86 R, 99 RBI, 1 SB in 611 AB
A bigger bust than just about anyone realizes. Atkins hit .233/.278/.383 outside of Coors Field this year. Buyer beware.
Adrian Beltre - Mariners - $20 - #10
Projection: .277/.328/.470, 26 HR, 90 R, 93 RBI, 9 SB in 617 AB
2008stats: .266/.327/.457, 25 HR, 74 R, 77 RBI, 8 SB in 556 AB
Alex Gordon - Royals - $20 - #11
Projection: .272/.355/.470, 24 HR, 82 R, 88 RBI, 16 SB in 566 AB
2008stats: .260/.351/.432, 16 HR, 72 R, 59 RBI, 9 SB in 493 AB
.277/.392/.496 in 137 at-bats after the All-Star break. I'll be hyping him again next year.
Chipper Jones - Braves - $20 - #9
Projection: .306/.412/.560, 27 HR, 90 R, 83 RBI, 3 SB in 461 AB
2008stats: .364/.470/.574, 22 HR, 82 R, 75 RBI, 4 SB in 439 AB
Evan Longoria - Rays - $6 - #27
Projection: .271/.341/.458, 16 HR, 54 R, 66 RBI, 2 SB in 402 AB
2008stats: .272/.343/.531, 27 HR, 67 R, 85 RBI, 7 SB in 448 AB
Melvin Mora - Orioles - $10 - #19
Projection: .271/.341/.410, 15 HR, 82 R, 71 RBI, 8 SB in 539 AB
2008stats: .285/.342/.483, 23 HR, 77 R, 104 RBI, 3 SB in 513 AB
.232/.300/.385 first half, .376/.417/.656 second half.
Aramis Ramirez - Cubs - $24 - #6
Projection: .294/.355/.547, 33 HR, 91 R, 110 RBI, 1 SB in 558 AB
2008stats: .289/.380/.518, 27 HR, 97 R, 111 RBI, 2 SB in 554 AB
Scott Rolen - Blue Jays - $10 - #21
Projection: .269/.351/.454, 16 HR, 70 R, 75 RBI, 4 SB in 427 AB
2008stats: .262/.349/.431, 11 HR, 58 R, 50 RBI, 5 SB in 408 AB
Shortstops
Preseason Top 5
Jose Reyes - Mets - $42 - #1
Projection: .294/.362/.473, 20 HR, 123 R, 66 RBI, 63 SB in 657 AB
2008stats: .297/.358/.475, 16 HR, 113 R, 68 RBI, 56 SB in 688 AB
Hanley Ramirez - Marlins - $41 - #2
Projection: .314/.377/.530, 27 HR, 114 R, 73 RBI, 45 SB in 621 AB
2008stats: .301/.400/.540, 33 HR, 125 R, 67 RBI, 35 SB in 589 AB
Jimmy Rollins - Phillies - $38 - #3
Projection: .290/.342/.480, 23 HR, 124 R, 75 RBI, 43 SB in 683 AB
2008stats: .277/.349/.437, 11 HR, 76 R, 59 RBI, 47 SB in 556 AB
Here's another bizarre stat: Rollins actually had a higher OBP this year than during his MVP season, but he scored 57 fewer runs. He did play in 25 fewer games, but his runs per game went from 0.86 to 0.55. It wasn't about stolen bases, either. He was 47-for-50 this year after going 41-for-47 in 2007. Part of the problem was that his injury coincided with Chase Utley's brilliant start, and Utley was never as good after Rollins returned.
Troy Tulowitzki - Rockies - $26 - #4
Projection: .294/.367/.494, 26 HR, 110 R, 89 RBI, 9 SB in 622 AB
2008stats: .263/.332/.401, 8 HR, 48 R, 46 RBI, 1 SB in 377 AB
Derek Jeter - Yankees - $29 - #5
Projection: .307/.382/.443, 14 HR, 116 R, 75 RBI, 18 SB in 619 AB
2008stats: .300/.363/.408, 11 HR, 88 R, 69 RBI, 11 SB in 596 AB
Jeter had scored at least 100 runs in every one of his healthy seasons, peaking at 134 in 1999. Throwing out 2003, when he was limited to 119 games, he had his weakest homer total since 1997, his smallest RBI and steal totals ever and his lowest average since 2004.
Others
Orlando Cabrera - White Sox - $20 - #10
Projection: .270/.317/.402, 13 HR, 95 R, 76 RBI, 19 SB in 614 AB
2008stats: .281/.334/.371, 8 HR, 93 R, 57 RBI, 19 SB in 661 AB
Stephen Drew - Diamondbacks - $17 - #11
Projection: .283/.349/.465, 19 HR, 77 R, 80 RBI, 12 SB in 548 AB
2008stats: .291/.333/.502, 21 HR, 91 R, 67 RBI, 3 SB in 611 AB
One of my breakthrough picks worked out, but I did expect more steals. Drew was 11-for-11 in steal attempts in 209 games in 2006 and '07. This year, he was just 3-for-6.
Cristian Guzman - Nationals - $2 - #29
Projection: .259/.312/.376, 6 HR, 57 R, 42 RBI, 10 SB in 452 AB
2008stats: .316/.345/.440, 9 HR, 77 R, 55 RBI, 6 SB in 579 AB
It's a good thing he was playing for such a bad team. Had Guzman been leading off all year for an average offense, he likely would have scored 90 runs and driven in 65.
J.J. Hardy - Brewers - $13 - #19
Projection: .269/.328/.440, 20 HR, 76 R, 87 RBI, 5 SB in 543 AB
2008stats: .283/.343/.478, 24 HR, 78 R, 74 RBI, 2 SB in 569 AB
Tony Pena Jr. - Royals - $3 - #28
Projection: .253/.281/.353, 5 HR, 58 R, 51 RBI, 11 SB in 487 AB
2008stats: .169/.189/.209, 1 HR, 22 R, 14 RBI, 3 SB in 225 AB
One of the most remarkable lines ever, and one that really deserves more attention. Pena had six extra-base hits and six walks in 225 at-bats. Of course, Pena never projected as a major leaguer with the bat. However, he did hit .285/.301/.378 in 362 at-bats over the first four months of 2007.
Jhonny Peralta - Indians - $16 - #15
Projection: .275/.349/.445, 20 HR, 83 R, 81 RBI, 2 SB in 564 AB
2008stats: .276/.331/.473, 23 HR, 104 R, 89 RBI, 3 SB in 605 AB
Miguel Tejada - Astros - $25 - #7
Projection: .306/.366/.484, 24 HR, 94 R, 100 RBI, 4 SB in 608 AB
2008stats: .283/.314/.415, 13 HR, 92 R, 66 RBI, 7 SB in 632 AB
Moving to the NL did revive Tejada. For a month. Tejada hit .345 with 22 RBI in 113 at-bats through the end of April and .270 with 44 RBI in 519 at-bats the rest of the way. His slugging percentage went from .567 to .382. While the downfall of Andruw Jones gets plenty of notice, Tejada is another player who was on a Hall of Fame path two years ago but clearly isn't now.
Ryan Theriot - Cubs - $11 - #20
Projection: .274/.342/.370, 4 HR, 71 R, 43 RBI, 28 SB in 467 AB
2008stats: .307/.387/.359, 1 HR, 85 R, 38 RBI, 22 SB in 580 AB
Outfielders
Preseason Top 10
Matt Holliday - Rockies - $38 - #1
Projection: .318/.391/.603, 39 HR, 118 R, 127 RBI, 9 SB in 607 AB
2008stats: .321/.409/.538, 25 HR, 107 R, 88 RBI, 28 SB in 539 AB
Holliday couldn't do anything about having lousy teammates, so he opted to help his fantasy owners by running more than ever before. He swiped 28 bases (in 30 attempts) after combining for 21 steals over the previous two seasons.
Carl Crawford - Devil Rays - $37 - #2
Projection: .312/.356/.485, 16 HR, 106 R, 85 RBI, 52 SB in 612 AB
2008stats: .273/.319/.400, 8 HR, 69 R, 57 RBI, 25 SB in 443 AB
Vladimir Guerrero - Angels - $32 - #3
Projection: .320/.398/.548, 33 HR, 100 R, 112 RBI, 8 SB in 591 AB
2008stats: .303/.365/.521, 27 HR, 85 R, 91 RBI, 5 SB in 541 AB
Hit .337/.399/.580 with 20 homers in 338 at-bats over the final four months.
Alfonso Soriano - Cubs - $32 - #4
Projection: .282/.331/.536, 37 HR, 105 R, 81 RBI, 27 SB in 617 AB
2008stats: .280/.344/.532, 29 HR, 76 R, 75 RBI, 19 SB in 453 AB
Nick Markakis - Orioles - $31 - #5
Projection: .306/.381/.513, 27 HR, 105 R, 81 RBI, 14 SB in 617 AB
2008stats: .306/.406/.491, 20 HR, 106 R, 87 RBI, 10 SB in 595 AB
I think this one is particularly good because I projected him to add 46 points of OPS and lose 31 RBI from his 2007 totals. He ended up adding 49 points of OPS and losing 25 RBI.
Carlos Beltran - Mets - $30 - #6
Projection: .273/.361/.529, 33 HR, 107 R, 106 RBI, 21 SB in 546 AB
2008stats: .284/.376/.500, 27 HR, 116 R, 112 RBI, 25 SB in 606 AB
Ichiro Suzuki - Mariners - $30 - #7
Projection: .327/.377/.437, 11 HR, 108 R, 64 RBI, 34 SB in 671 AB
2008stats: .311/.361/.386, 6 HR, 103 R, 42 RBI, 43 SB in 686 AB
Ichiro slugged between .416 and .457 in each of his seven seasons in the majors before falling all of the way to .386 this year. He had also driven in at least 49 runs ever season.
Alex Rios - Blue Jays - $29 - #8
Projection: .304/.365/.517, 27 HR, 105 R, 97 RBI, 16 SB in 615 AB
2008stats: .291/.337/.461, 15 HR, 91 R, 79 RBI, 32 SB in 635 AB
Only his lofty steal total prevented Rios from being a complete bust early on. 11 of his 15 homers came in his 66 games after the All-Star break, and he slugged .542 in the second half.
Grady Sizemore - Indians - $29 - #9
Projection: .285/.382/.491, 26 HR, 123 R, 81 RBI, 24 SB in 632 AB
2008stats: .268/.375/.502, 33 HR, 101 R, 90 RBI, 38 SB in 634 AB
Bobby Abreu - Yankees - $29 - #10
Projection: .287/.384/.472, 21 HR, 113 R, 97 RBI, 26 SB in 572 AB
2008stats: .296/.371/.471, 20 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI, 22 SB in 609 AB
Others
Jason Bay - Pirates/Red Sox - $20 - #28
Projection: .274/.372/.485, 26 HR, 86 R, 97 RBI, 9 SB in 548 AB
2008stats: .286/.373/.522, 31 HR, 111 R, 101 RBI, 10 SB in 577 AB
The trade didn't make much of a difference. Bay hit .282/.375/.519 as a Pirate and .293/.370/.527 for the Red Sox.
Milton Bradley - Rangers - $10 - #63
Projection: .291/.378/.479, 17 HR, 70 R, 66 RBI, 7 SB in 461 AB
2008stats: .321/.436/.563, 22 HR, 78 R, 77 RBI, 5 SB in 414 AB
The 414 at-bats is actually the second-highest total of his career.
Jack Cust - Athletics - $10 - #66
Projection: .246/.388/.473, 29 HR, 72 R, 83 RBI, 0 SB in 488 AB
2008stats: .231/.375/.476, 33 HR, 77 R, 77 RBI, 0 SB in 481 AB
Jacoby Ellsbury - Red Sox - $15 - #40
Projection: .279/.336/.398, 8 HR, 75 R, 56 RBI, 34 SB in 502 AB
2008stats: .280/.336/.394, 9 HR, 98 R, 47 RBI, 50 SB in 554 AB
Kosuke Fukudome - Cube - $15 - #41
Projection: .283/.370/.457, 18 HR, 82 R, 84 RBI, 9 SB in 551 AB
2008stats: .257/.359/.379, 10 HR, 79 R, 58 RBI, 12 SB in 501 AB
Curtis Granderson - Tigers - $25 - #18
Projection: .286/.357/.497, 22 HR, 108 R, 73 RBI, 20 SB in 559 AB
2008stats: .280/.365/.494, 22 HR, 112 R, 66 RBI, 12 SB in 553 AB
Ken Griffey Jr. - Reds/White Sox - $13 - #53
Projection: .263/.353/.501, 28 HR, 73 R, 85 RBI, 2 SB in 471 AB
2008stats: .249/.353/.424, 18 HR, 67 R, 71 RBI, 0 SB in 490 AB
Josh Hamilton - Rangers - $15 - #42
Projection: .271/.340/.510, 24 HR, 76 R, 82 RBI, 10 SB in 473 AB
2008stats: .304/.371/.530, 32 HR, 98 R, 130 RBI, 9 SB in 624 AB
Andruw Jones - Dodgers - $19 - #29
Projection: .254/.347/.490, 35 HR, 89 R, 104 RBI, 4 SB in 575 AB
2008stats: .158/.256/.249, 3 HR, 21 R, 14 RBI, 0 SB in 209 AB
Matt Kemp - Dodgers - $22 - #23
Projection: .290/.332/.506, 24 HR, 77 R, 87 RBI, 19 SB in 544 AB
2008stats: .290/.340/.459, 18 HR, 93 R, 76 RBI, 35 SB in 606 AB
I was looking for more power, but the steals made up for it. He should be good for 25 homers and 25 steals next year.
Ryan Ludwick - Cardinals - $3 - #101
Projection: .254/.319/.459, 15 HR, 45 R, 55 RBI, 2 SB in 338 AB
2008stats: .299/.375/.591, 37 HR, 104 R, 113 RBI, 4 SB in 538 AB
Magglio Ordonez - Tigers - $25 - #16
Projection: .304/.371/.502, 25 HR, 102 R, 116 RBI, 2 SB in 576 AB
2008stats: .317/.376/.494, 21 HR, 72 R, 103 RBI, 1 SB in 561 AB
It looks like a pretty big miss in runs and RBI, but I still think this one worked out pretty well. I had Ordonez's OPS falling 156 points from 2007 and it dropped 160 points. I did overestimate his run and RBI output by a combined 43, but it's not likely that anyone following my rankings ended up with him.
Carlos Quentin - White Sox - $5 - #88
Projection: .262/.346/.456, 15 HR, 54 R, 59 RBI, 4 SB in 386 AB
2008stats: .288/.394/.571, 36 HR, 96 R, 100 RBI, 7 SB in 480 AB
And I thought I was being pretty bold with this one. Quentin probably wouldn't have opened the season in the majors if not for an injury to Jerry Owens.
Hunter Pence - Astros - $25 - #15
Projection: .297/.362/.501, 25 HR, 89 R, 101 RBI, 16 SB in 589 AB
2008stats: .269/.318/.466, 25 HR, 78 R, 83 RBI, 11 SB in 595 AB
Pence thought that everything that worked for him as a rookie would do just as well for him as a sophomore. He was clearly wrong, and he needs to make some adjustments if he's going to become a quality regular.
Manny Ramirez - Red Sox/Dodgers - $28 - #12
Projection: .307/.409/.563, 33 HR, 99 R, 118 RBI, 0 SB in 524 AB
2008stats: .332/.430/.601, 37 HR, 102 R, 121 RBI, 3 SB in 552 AB
.299/.398/.529 before the trade, .396/.489/.743 afterwards.
Shane Victorino - Phillies - $20 - #26
Projection: .280/.344/.419, 12 HR, 91 R, 57 RBI, 36 SB in 542 AB
2008stats: .293/.352/.447, 14 HR, 102 R, 58 RBI, 36 SB in 570 AB
Delmon Young - Twins - $24 - #22
Projection: .297/.330/.460, 19 HR, 76 R, 99 RBI, 21 SB in 609 AB
2008stats: .290/.336/.405, 10 HR, 80 R, 69 RBI, 14 SB in 575 AB
OPS Projections
Below is a chart looking at my OPS projections and the end results. Included are the 220 players that were projected to receive at least 300 at-bats and went on to finish with at least 300 at-bats.
Name - Projected OPS - Actual OPS - Difference
Jason Giambi - 876 - 876 - 0
Torii Hunter - 809 - 810 - 1
Erick Aybar - 698 - 699 - 1
Kurt Suzuki - 715 - 716 - 1
Mike Cameron - 808 - 809 - 1
Chase Utley - 914 - 915 - 1
Adam LaRoche - 840 - 841 - 1
Mike Lowell - 797 - 798 - 1
Cesar Izturis - 630 - 628 - 2
Jose Reyes - 835 - 833 - 2
Luke Scott - 805 - 807 - 2
Grady Sizemore - 873 - 876 - 3
Nick Markakis - 894 - 897 - 3
Aramis Ramirez - 902 - 898 - 4
Magglio Ordonez - 873 - 869 - 4
Curtis Granderson - 854 - 858 - 4
Brian Schneider - 702 - 707 - 5
Jacoby Ellsbury - 734 - 729 - 5
Mark Grudzielanek - 738 - 743 - 5
Josh Willingham - 840 - 834 - 6
Felipe Lopez - 736 - 730 - 6
Placido Polanco - 762 - 768 - 6
Vernon Wells - 847 - 840 - 7
Rich Aurilia - 738 - 745 - 7
Mark Teixeira - 954 - 962 - 8
Yunel Escobar - 774 - 766 - 8
Alfonso Soriano - 867 - 876 - 9
Jay Bruce - 758 - 767 - 9
Jack Cust - 861 - 851 - 10
Troy Glaus - 846 - 856 - 10
Orlando Hudson - 807 - 817 - 10
Jhonny Peralta - 794 - 804 - 10
Eric Hinske - 787 - 798 - 11
Coco Crisp - 740 - 751 - 11
A.J. Pierzynski - 739 - 728 - 11
Pat Burrell - 887 - 875 - 12
David Eckstein - 705 - 692 - 13
Bobby Abreu - 856 - 843 - 13
Adrian Beltre - 798 - 784 - 14
Carlos Beltran - 890 - 876 - 14
Jason Kubel - 819 - 805 - 14
Orlando Cabrera - 719 - 705 - 14
Chris Snyder - 785 - 800 - 15
Kelly Johnson - 811 - 795 - 16
Mike Jacobs - 795 - 812 - 17
Luis Gonzalez - 766 - 749 - 17
Carlos Gomez - 675 - 657 - 18
Joe Crede - 757 - 773 - 18
Adam Kennedy - 711 - 692 - 19
Mark Reynolds - 798 - 779 - 19
Ivan Rodriguez - 733 - 714 - 19
Mark Kotsay - 712 - 732 - 20
Yadier Molina - 719 - 740 - 21
Garret Anderson - 780 - 758 - 22
Stephen Drew - 814 - 836 - 22
Edwin Encarnacion - 830 - 807 - 23
Asdrubal Cabrera - 737 - 713 - 24
Scott Rolen - 805 - 780 - 25
Alex Rodriguez - 990 - 965 - 25
Carlos Delgado - 845 - 871 - 26
Ryan Sweeney - 706 - 733 - 27
Ryan Church - 813 - 785 - 28
Marco Scutaro - 726 - 697 - 29
Ryan Braun - 917 - 888 - 29
Scott Hairston - 762 - 791 - 29
Jose Lopez - 734 - 764 - 30
Justin Morneau - 903 - 873 - 30
Raul Ibanez - 806 - 837 - 31
David DeJesus - 787 - 818 - 31
Ryan Theriot - 712 - 745 - 33
Randy Winn - 757 - 790 - 33
Hanley Ramirez - 907 - 940 - 33
Brendan Harris - 756 - 721 - 35
Casey Blake - 772 - 808 - 36
Lastings Milledge - 767 - 731 - 36
Jimmy Rollins - 822 - 786 - 36
Shane Victorino - 763 - 799 - 36
Jason Kendall - 689 - 651 - 38
Jason Bay - 857 - 895 - 38
Matt Kemp - 838 - 799 - 39
Bengie Molina - 728 - 767 - 39
Adam Dunn - 937 - 898 - 39
Matt Stairs - 791 - 751 - 40
Lance Berkman - 945 - 986 - 41
Conor Jackson - 864 - 823 - 41
Alex Gordon - 825 - 783 - 42
Adrian Gonzalez - 828 - 871 - 43
Aaron Rowand - 793 - 749 - 44
David Wright - 968 - 924 - 44
Dioner Navarro - 713 - 757 - 44
Brad Hawpe - 923 - 879 - 44
Lyle Overbay - 822 - 777 - 45
Juan Pierre - 700 - 655 - 45
Jose Castillo - 713 - 668 - 45
Ryan Doumit - 812 - 858 - 46
Carlos Pena - 917 - 871 - 46
Juan Uribe - 728 - 682 - 46
Russell Martin - 828 - 781 - 47
Jason Bartlett - 737 - 690 - 47
Matt Holliday - 994 - 947 - 47
Joe Mauer - 911 - 864 - 47
Jorge Cantu - 760 - 808 - 48
Johnny Damon - 788 - 836 - 48
Delmon Young - 790 - 741 - 49
Josh Hamilton - 850 - 901 - 51
Dustin Pedroia - 818 - 869 - 51
J.D. Drew - 876 - 927 - 51
Carlos Guillen - 862 - 811 - 51
Rick Ankiel - 791 - 843 - 52
Chris Young - 810 - 758 - 52
Edgar Renteria - 751 - 699 - 52
J.J. Hardy - 768 - 821 - 53
Akinori Iwamura - 782 - 729 - 53
Derek Jeter - 825 - 771 - 54
Brian Roberts - 773 - 828 - 55
Pedro Feliz - 761 - 705 - 56
Hideki Matsui - 851 - 795 - 56
Emil Brown - 740 - 682 - 58
Ray Durham - 754 - 813 - 59
Manny Ramirez - 972 - 1031 - 59
John Buck - 728 - 669 - 59
Vladimir Guerrero - 946 - 886 - 60
David Dellucci - 771 - 711 - 60
Justin Upton - 755 - 816 - 61
Ryan Zimmerman - 835 - 774 - 61
Kevin Millar - 779 - 717 - 62
Jim Edmonds - 760 - 822 - 62
Carlos Lee - 873 - 937 - 64
Albert Pujols - 1050 - 1114 - 64
Chone Figgins - 750 - 685 - 65
Brian McCann - 831 - 896 - 65
Ramon Hernandez - 779 - 714 - 65
Jose Bautista - 783 - 718 - 65
Ian Kinsler - 827 - 892 - 65
Andre Ethier - 819 - 885 - 66
Gary Matthews Jr. - 742 - 675 - 67
Ichiro Suzuki - 814 - 747 - 67
Brian Giles - 787 - 854 - 67
Jack Wilson - 726 - 659 - 67
Jermaine Dye - 818 - 885 - 67
Brandon Phillips - 822 - 754 - 68
Jose Guillen - 806 - 738 - 68
Kazuo Matsui - 711 - 781 - 70
Mark Ellis - 764 - 694 - 70
Derrek Lee - 894 - 823 - 71
Yuniesky Betancourt - 762 - 691 - 71
Jayson Werth - 790 - 861 - 71
Marlon Byrd - 771 - 842 - 71
Joey Votto - 803 - 874 - 71
Nick Punto - 655 - 726 - 71
Paul Konerko - 854 - 783 - 71
Chipper Jones - 972 - 1044 - 72
Howie Kendrick - 827 - 754 - 73
Ryan Garko - 823 - 750 - 73
Corey Hart - 833 - 759 - 74
Skip Schumaker - 691 - 765 - 74
Geovany Soto - 794 - 868 - 74
Franklin Gutierrez - 765 - 691 - 74
Michael Young - 815 - 741 - 74
Melvin Mora - 751 - 826 - 75
Evan Longoria - 799 - 874 - 75
Nate McLouth - 777 - 853 - 76
Ken Griffey Jr. - 854 - 778 - 76
Mark Teahen - 791 - 715 - 76
Jay Payton - 714 - 637 - 77
Brandon Inge - 749 - 672 - 77
Xavier Nady - 789 - 867 - 78
Adam Jones - 790 - 711 - 79
Hunter Pence - 863 - 783 - 80
Miguel Cabrera - 970 - 887 - 83
Alex Rios - 882 - 798 - 84
Jim Thome - 949 - 865 - 84
James Loney - 857 - 772 - 85
Ronnie Belliard - 759 - 845 - 86
Kevin Kouzmanoff - 818 - 732 - 86
Ross Gload - 752 - 664 - 88
Ty Wigginton - 787 - 876 - 89
Kosuke Fukudome - 827 - 738 - 89
Dan Uggla - 784 - 874 - 90
B.J. Upton - 874 - 784 - 90
Casey Kotchman - 834 - 738 - 96
Rickie Weeks - 837 - 740 - 97
Cristian Guzman - 688 - 786 - 98
Jeff Kent - 844 - 745 - 99
Jason Varitek - 771 - 672 - 99
Bill Hall - 790 - 689 - 101
Mark DeRosa - 752 - 857 - 105
Jack Hannahan - 754 - 647 - 107
Jeff Keppinger - 764 - 657 - 107
Garrett Atkins - 887 - 780 - 107
Michael Bourn - 697 - 588 - 109
Jeremy Hermida - 840 - 729 - 111
Daric Barton - 787 - 674 - 113
Ryan Howard - 996 - 881 - 115
Bobby Crosby - 764 - 645 - 119
Prince Fielder - 998 - 879 - 119
Miguel Tejada - 850 - 729 - 121
Carl Crawford - 841 - 718 - 123
Billy Butler - 847 - 724 - 123
Melky Cabrera - 764 - 641 - 123
Aubrey Huff - 788 - 912 - 124
Carlos Ruiz - 744 - 620 - 124
Willy Taveras - 728 - 604 - 124
Freddy Sanchez - 795 - 669 - 126
Troy Tulowitzki - 861 - 732 - 129
Gary Sheffield - 856 - 725 - 131
Tadahito Iguchi - 730 - 595 - 135
Kevin Youkilis - 823 - 958 - 135
Nick Swisher - 878 - 743 - 135
David Ortiz - 1013 - 877 - 136
Milton Bradley - 857 - 999 - 142
Jose Vidro - 765 - 612 - 153
Kenji Johjima - 762 - 609 - 153
Carlos Quentin - 802 - 965 - 163
Corey Patterson - 747 - 582 - 165
Robinson Cano - 883 - 715 - 168
Khalil Greene - 770 - 599 - 171
Jeff Francoeur - 834 - 653 - 181
Ryan Ludwick - 778 - 966 - 188
Austin Kearns - 849 - 627 - 222
Projected group average OPS/Projected group actual OPS
2004 - 812.6/802.5
2005 - 807.6/781.3
2006 - 801.1/799.6
2007 - 808.5/788.6
2008 - 806.8/785.4
Average error
2003 - 60 points
2004 - 57 points
2005 - 60 points
2006 - 60 points
2007 - 57 points
2008 - 58 points
Median error
2003 - 53 points
2004 - 47 points
2005 - 50 points
2006 - 50 points
2007 - 41 points
2008 - 52 points
Within 30 points
2003 - 59 of 212
2004 - 77 of 218
2005 - 77 of 237
2006 - 71 of 232
2007 - 83 of 223
2008 - 67 of 220
Over 90 points off
2003 - 44 of 212
2004 - 43 of 218
2005 - 59 of 237
2006 - 56 of 232
2007 - 49 of 223
2008 - 42 of 220
Because of the overall drop in offense, I assumed going in that this would be worst year ever. In truth, it wasn't quite that bad. The average error is right around the same as it always is. The median, though, took a big hit from last year. While I did cut back on the huge misses -- I had my fewest ever 90-point misses -- I was off by 65-80 points on an extraordinary number of players. Last year, I was able to beat the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA system using this sample of players. I'm guessing that won't be the case this year, but if anyone wants to run the numbers, I'll be happy to post them.
A few more notes
- I was over on 132 of the 220 players and under on 87.
- OPS was down nine points overall for the year. If one were to take that into account and drop all of my projections by nine points, the average error would drop from 58 points to 56 points.
- Average error by team:
Mets - 20 points (6 players, 4 over, 2 under)
Diamondbacks - 31 points (7, 3, 4)
Blue Jays - 35 points (7, 7, 0)
Giants - 38 points (6, 2, 4)
Twins - 38 points (7, 6, 1)
Indians - 40 points (7, 4, 3)
Marlins - 46 points (7, 3, 4)
Red Sox - 46 points (9, 3, 6)
Tigers - 47 points (9, 7, 2)
Braves - 53 points (7, 3, 4)
Cardinals - 54 points (8, 2, 6)
Cubs - 55 points (7, 3, 4)
Angels - 56 points (8, 6, 2)
Phillies - 56 points (8, 5, 3)
Orioles - 60 points (9, 4, 5)
Rays - 61 points (8, 5, 3)
Yankees - 61 points (8, 6, 1, 1)
Pirates - 62 points (8, 3, 5)
Royals - 62 points (8, 6, 2)
Athletics - 63 points (8, 6, 2)
Brewers - 64 points (8, 6, 2)
Dodgers - 64 points (6, 5, 1)
White Sox - 68 points (9, 6, 3)
Reds - 70 points (8, 6, 2)
Mariners - 74 points (7, 5, 2)
Rangers - 81 points (5, 1, 4)
Astros - 82 points (7, 3, 4)
Nationals - 85 points (6, 4, 2)
Padres - 85 points (7, 3, 4)
Rockies - 90 points (5, 5, 0)
For the record, everyone is placed with their original teams here (Ramirez with the Red Sox, Bay with the Pirates, etc.)
I was closest on the Angels, Rockies and Mariners last year, so not much consistency there.
Considering that the list doesn't even include Todd Helton (917 projected, 779 actual), I did a remarkably bad job on the Rockies. I was also well off on Chris Iannetta (776, 895).
The Rangers would look better if the standards were relaxed and Hank Blalock (867 projected, 846 actual), Gerald Laird (729, 727) and David Murphy (746, 786) were added to the mix.
Not only was I over on all seven Jays that qualified for the sample, but also four others with at least 200 at-bats: Aaron Hill (804, 685), Frank Thomas (874, 723), Gregg Zaun (729, 700) and Adam Lind (780, 755).
I didn't see the Rays winning 87 games this year, much less 97. Still, I was over on five of their eight players. The only one I was truly under on was Evan Longoria (799, 874), and he's only going to get better.
