It's been a long, terribly depressing decade for Orioles fans. No doubt, that's due to some sort of karmic retribution for the team's evil owner doing whatever he could to keep a team out of D.C.
But things are looking up for the orange and black. And it's all due to Matt Wieters.
Wieters was the team's first-round pick in the 2007 draft. They nabbed him one slot ahead of the Nats (who took Ross Detwiler).
He's a tall, switch-hitting catcher with power. And that's not just some sort of vague scouting report. He pounded the snot out of minor league pitching.
So after just 130 games of minor league ball, the O's think he's ready. They traded away Ramon Hernandez, opening up the starting job for the best offensive prospect they've had since Cal Ripken had hair.
But is he ready?
Statheads say he is.
Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system, which is typically conservative, thinks he's got a chance to be an MVP candidate. They're saying that he could hit .311/.395/.544 (average/ on-base percentage/ slugging average). Had he hit that last season, he'd have been in the top few batters in the league.
So how'd Prospectus project a rookie to hit that well? Rob Neyer found the answer.
Basically, Wieters tore up two levels of minor league ball to such a degree, and at an earlier age than most players are able to dominate, that it's a pretty good indication that he's got some unique skills.
Players aren't supposed to hit .365/ .460/ .625 at Double-A, especially in the Eastern League (which tends to favor pitchers). And they're not supposed to do it when they're just 22 years old.
The only player close to his league-leading OPS total was a 25-year old in his second go-around at that level.
He's a unique player, and all signs point to him being an incredible one.
Maybe expecting an immediate MVP candidacy is a bit crazy, but if anyone can do it, it appears that Wieters can.
Chris Needham used to write Capitol Punishment. He lived in Baltimore for a few years, but was never mugged.
