Here's What We Know About Chances of DC-Area Snow - NBC4 Washington

Here's What We Know About Chances of DC-Area Snow

The Southeast will be affected by a storm Sunday into Monday, but questions remain about the impact on the mid-Atlantic

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    NEWSLETTERS

    Morning Weather, Dec. 6, 2018

    Storm Team4 Meteorologist Chuck Bell has the forecast for Dec. 6, 2018. (Published Thursday, Dec. 6, 2018)

    What to Know

    • The Southeast is set to be affected by a storm Sunday into Monday, but questions remain on how far north the storm will go.

    • It may be a day or two before we can nail down better details. At this point, it's still too early to pinpoint an exact forecast.

    Storm Team4 is monitoring the potential for a snowstorm in our area Sunday or Monday — but it's looking like chances have dropped in the past day. 

    The Southeast is set to be affected by a storm Sunday into Monday, but questions remain on how far north the storm will go, and the storm's impact in the Mid-Atlantic region.

    The Setup

    On Friday, the storm will be passing through Texas. A dry cold front will move through our region that day, allowing for temperatures to drop for the weekend, and moisture will move to the northeast Saturday night through Monday.

    Another piece of energy coming out of Canada may or may not interact with this storm Sunday into Monday. If the two pieces of energy combine, the storm will affect the D.C. area, but the storm will likely stay to the south if they don't.

    Storm Team4 Winter Weather ForecastStorm Team4 Winter Weather Forecast

    Storm Team4 Chief Meteorologist Doug Kammerer predicts a white winter, with colder-than-average temperatures and plenty of snow.

    (Published Monday, Nov. 12, 2018)

    What We Know

    While this storm is still four days away, we are starting to draw some better conclusions about what might happen. We'll have cold air in place, so a wintry mix of rain, snow sleet and freezing rain is in play.

    We do know that the storm will affect a good portion of the Mid-Atlantic, especially locations in North Carolina and the southern Appalachian mountains, bringing a big bout of winter weather to the mid-Atlantic states and rain to the Deep South.

    As it's looking as of Thursday morning, we may just be on the northern edge of any real snow chance, with most of the moisture staying to our south.

    Models have been forecasting this storm since last week. A storm is coming up through the Deep South, but will we get snow here or will it stay to the south?

    By two to three days out, we'll have a better idea of who may be affected. Then, by one to two days out, we can fine-tune details such as what locations will see what type of precipitation or what the possible totals of precipitation might be. We'll also get an idea of who will see the biggest impact.

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    What's Still to Be Determined

    There have been conflicting models run over the past several days regarding the storm track.

    At times, model runs have trended the storm south of the region, which would mean we wouldn't get much winter weather at all, with some spots getting nothing. In other runs, the track of the storm shifts north, bringing us a better chance of accumulating snow in our region. We also know that just a small shift in the track will have major impacts on our forecast.

    The jury is also still out on the timing. We could have an all-day Sunday event, a Sunday-night-into-Monday event, or solely a Monday event. Different models indicate different timing scenarios.

    It may be a day or two before we can nail down better details, but at this point, it is just too early and too difficult to pinpoint an exact forecast. 

    If you have plans for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week, this will be something that you will have to monitor very closely. We'll be keeping a close eye on it for you as well.

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