As the war in Ukraine approaches the one-year mark, new data suggests American support for accepting refugees from the conflict is declining, according to new polling from LX News & YouGov.
The poll asked: Should the U.S. accept refugees fleeing violence from the following countries?
- Ukraine: 50% of respondents said yes (down 11 points from March 2022)
- Afghanistan: 42% said yes (down 4 points from March 2022)
- El Salvador: 37% said yes (down 3 points from March 2022)
- Syria: 34% said yes (down 12 points from March 2022)
WHY IT MATTERS: The U.S./Mexico border may get the most attention, but a record number of refugees and asylum-seekers are looking to come to the United States because of dangerous situations all over the world.
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ZOOM IN: Much of the drop in public opinion for welcoming refugees can be attributed to a decline in support from Democrats, which over the last 10 months has dropped by nine points regarding Ukrainian refugees and double digits for those fleeing Syria, Afghanistan and El Salvador. Republicans, who already possessed lower-than-average support for refugees across the board, saw a much smaller decline from March 2022 figures.
BETWEEN THE LINES: Mariano Sana, a sociologist at Vanderbilt University who studies immigration, demography and public opinion, attributes some of the opinion shift among Democrats to more coverage of the immigration crisis on the United States' southern border.
“Most questions about policy tend to capture sentiments, rather than specific policy positions,” Sana said. “So, my guess is... some Democrats are thinking maybe the government should be a little more cautious when it comes to immigration.”
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He also said the general drop in support for Ukrainian refugees could have to do with a drop in U.S. media coverage of the war. He found mentions of Ukrainian refugees are down 75% from when we last asked the question in March 2022.
Republicans, who already expressed below-average support for accepting refugees, saw a similar drop for Ukrainian refugees, but little change for those coming from Syria, Afghanistan, or El Salvador.
BY THE NUMBERS: Democrats remain more willing than Republicans to welcome refugees, but the gap has shrunk.
Breaking it down by party, here's how Democrats and Republicans responded to the question: Should the U.S. accept refugees fleeing violence from the following countries?
Of Democrats:
- Ukraine: 67% of Democrats yes (down 9 points from March 2022)
- Afghanistan: 58% said yes (down 16 points from March 2022)
- El Salvador: 55% said yes (down 14 points from March 2022)
- Syria: 49% said yes (down 12 points from March 2022)
Of Republicans:
- Ukraine: 37% of Republicans said yes (down 11 points from March 2022)
- Afghanistan: 29% said yes (down 3 points from March 2022)
- El Salvador: 21% said yes (up 2 points from March 2022)
- Syria: 20% said yes (down 3 points from March 2022)
ZOOM OUT: We may also be seeing a short-term “revert to the norm” for attitudes regarding immigrants coming to the U.S.
“Many people think Trump made America more anti-immigrant. Trump made the government more anti-immigrant, but not public opinion,” said Sana. “Public opinion actually reacted in a sympathetic way towards immigrants... What I saw in my research was the support for refugees actually was never higher than during the Trump years.”
THE BIG PICTURE: Americans have been increasingly willing to support more liberal immigration policies over the decades, according to Pew & Gallup research.
CLOSING THOUGHT: Sana says you can expect sentiment on immigration to continue to fluctuate with the amount of attention the issue gets in U.S. media.
“There is a little bit of ‘out of sight, out of mind’ when it comes to public opinion on refugees,” Sana said. “How often refugee stories appear in the media, and how they are presented (visually) are pretty important.”
Noah Pransky is LX News' national political editor, covering Washington and state politics. His political and investigative work has been honored with national Murrow, Polk, duPont and Cronkite awards, and you can contact him confidentially at noah.pransky@nbcuni.com, or on Facebook, Instagram or Twitter.
