After 6 Months of Russia's War in Ukraine, Here's Where Things Stand
The outcome of the war will depend on both sides' ability to mobilize additional resources
By The Associated Press •
NBC Universal, Inc.
Russia’s war with Ukraine continues to drag on as Ukraine receives U.S. aid and Russia hurts from sanctions. Though some say there’s pressure for Putin to end the war soon, it looks like there’s no end in sight to the war, says Joel Rubin, former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of...
When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 in an unprovoked act of aggression, many expected a quick victory.
Six months later, the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II has turned into a grinding war of attrition. The Russian offensive has largely bogged down as Ukrainian forces increasingly target key facilities far behind the front lines, including in Russia-occupied Crimea.
A look at where things stand:
A BOTCHED BLITZ
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When Putin declared the start of the “special military operation,” he urged Ukraine's military to turn against the government in Kyiv, reflecting the Kremlin's belief that the population would broadly welcome the invaders. Some of the Russian troops coming in from Moscow's ally of Belarus, just 200 kilometers (about 125 miles) north of the capital, reportedly brought their parade uniforms with them in preparation for a quick triumph.
Those hopes were quickly shattered by fierce Ukrainian resistance, backed by Western-supplied weapons systems to the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Airborne troops sent to seize airfields around Kyiv suffered heavy losses and armored convoys stretching along the main highway leading to the capital were pummeled by Ukrainian artillery and scouts.
Despite numerous attacks on Ukrainian air bases and air defense assets, the Russian air force has failed to win full control of the skies and suffered heavy losses, limiting its ability to support ground forces.
One month into the war, Moscow pulled its troops back from areas near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and other major cities in a tacit acknowledgment of the blitz’s failure.
Ukraine refused Russia’s demands to surrender the city of Mariupol.
SHIFTING BATTLEGROUNDS
The Kremlin then shifted its focus to the Donbas, Ukraine's eastern industrial heartland, where Moscow-backed separatists had been fighting government troops since 2014 following Russia's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.
Relying on their massive edge in artillery, Russian forces inched forward in ferocious battles that devastated the region. The strategic port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov that became a symbol of Ukrainian resistance fell in May after a nearly three-month siege that reduced the city to ruins.
More than 2,400 Mariupol defenders who holed up at the giant Azovstal steel mill later surrendered and were taken prisoner. At least 53 of them died last month in an explosion at a prison in eastern Ukraine that Moscow and Kyiv blamed on each other.
The Russians have taken control of the entire Luhansk region, one of two provinces that make up the Donbas, and also seized just over half of the second, Donetsk.
Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine’s territory.
“Putin will try to bite one piece of Ukrainian territory after another to strengthen his negotiating stand,” said Mykola Sunhurovskyi, a military analyst with the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center think-tank. “His message to Ukraine is: If you don't sit down for talks now, things will get worse and we will take even more of your territory and kill even more of your people. He's trying to raise not only external but also internal pressure on the Ukrainian government.”
The Donbas offensive has slowed as Moscow was forced to relocate some of its troops to Russia-occupied areas in the south to fend off a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russian troops seized the Kherson region, north of Crimea, and part of the neighboring Zaporizhzhia region early in the conflict. It has installed pro-Moscow administrations there, introduced its currency, handed out Russian passports and launched preparations for referendums to pave the way for their annexation.
But Ukrainian forces recently reclaimed some ground, striking bridges and targeting munitions depots. Meanwhile, both sides have traded accusations of shelling the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, raising fears of an atomic disaster.
“Ukraine has forced Russia to conduct a massive redeployment of forces and spread them all along the front line, from Kharkiv to Kherson,” said Ukrainian military expert Oleh Zhdanov. “It's very hard to stretch them along such a big distance.”
Although Kyiv doesn't have enough weapons to launch a big counteroffensive, “time plays in Ukraine's favor,” he said. “The longer the pause lasts, the more weapons Ukraine will receive from its allies.”
Paula Bronstein /Getty Images
Firefighters respond to a four story residential building after it was hit by a “kamikaze drone” attack early morning, Oct. 17, 2022, in Kyiv, Ukraine. Approximately three people were killed.
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Smoke rises over the street after a drone attack in Kyiv, Oct. 17, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. – Ukraine officials said Kyiv had been struck four times in an early morning Russian attack with Iranian drones that damaged a residential building and targeted the central train station.
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A Ukrainian woman is seen with her child after the Russian attacks in Kyiv, Ukraine, Oct. 17, 2022. It was reported that at least four explosions were heard in Ukraineâs capital Kyiv on Monday as authorities reported attacks by Russian kamikaze drones.
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Firefighters work on a building destroyed by Russian strikes in Kyiv, Ukraine, Oct. 17, 2022.
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The city council in Kupyansk, Kharkiv, Ukraine, destroyed by shelling by Russian forces on Oct. 16, 2022.
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Police examine destroyed cars in Kyiv after several Russian strikes hit the capital, Oct. 10, 2022. The strikes come two days after an explosion damaged the Kirsh Bridge – Russia’s sole link to annexed Crimea.
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A rescue worker escorts an injured resident and her dogs out of a building after several Russian strikes hit Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, Oct. 10, 2022. The strikes come two days after an explosion damaged the Kirsh Bridge – Russia’s sole link to annexed Crimea.
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People hug outside a partially destroyed office building after several Russian strikes hit Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, Oct. 10, 2022. The head of the Ukrainian military said that Russian forces launched at least 75 missiles at Ukraine Monday morning, with fatal strikes targeting the capital as well as cities in the south and west. The strikes come two days after an explosion damaged the Kirsh Bridge – Russia’s sole link to annexed Crimea.
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Residents examine a crater following a missile strike in Dnipro, Ukraine, Oct. 10, 2022. The strikes come two days after an explosion damaged the Kirsh Bridge – Russia’s sole link to annexed Crimea.
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Black smoke billows from a fire on the Kerch bridge that links Crimea to Russia, after a truck exploded on the bridge near Kirch, Oct. 8, 2022. The explosion damaged Russia’s sole land link with annexed Crimea in a symbolic win for Ukraine.
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A local resident cycles past an abandoned Russian T-72 tank in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, Sept. 29, 2022. Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine has lasted over 200 days, with an end to the conflict nowhere in sight.
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Destroyed churches seen in Bohorodychne village in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, Sept. 13, 2022. Russia said on September 13 it was carrying out “massive strikes” across the Ukrainian front line.
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Destroyed houses seen after a strike in Pryvillya, Donbas, June 14, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, which are separated by a river, have been targeted for weeks as the last areas still under Ukrainian control in the eastern Luhansk region.
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A local community art center is destroyed following a strike in Lysychansk, Donbas, June 17, 2022, as the Russian-Ukraine war enters its 114th day.
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Ukrainian soldiers inspect a destroyed warehouse reportedly targeted by Russian troops on outskirts of Lysychansk, Donbas, on June 17, 2022, as the Russian-Ukraine war enters its 114th day.
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The tail of a rocket is nailed into a pavement in the city of Lysychansk, Donbas, on June 17, 2022, as the Russian-Ukraine war enters its 114th day.
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The Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, under the Donetsk People’s Republic, eastern Ukraine, May 12, 2022. Mariupol's last defenders surrendered to Russian forces mid-May after weeks of assaults below the steelworks plant, as Russia sought to solidify its influence over the separatist-controlled territory of Donbas.
Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images
Police walk among the rubble of a destroyed house in Bohdanivka village, April 14, 2022, amid Russia’s invasion launched on Ukraine.
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Calcinated cars seen outside a train station hit by a Russian rocket attack killing at least 35 people, on April 8, 2022, in Kramatorsk, Ukraine. The station was being used for civilian evacuations at the time.
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A picture taken on March 21, 2022 shows a view of the damage at the Retroville shopping mall, a day after it was shelled by Russian forces in a residential district in the northwest of the Ukranian capital Kyiv. At least six people were killed in the bombing.
Anadolu Agency
In this photo, newborn babies are seen inside their cribs in Kyiv, Ukraine on March 17, 2022. Surrogate-born babies cannot reunite with their biological families due to ongoing Russian attacks in Ukraine.
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The main television tower in Kyiv after it was hit by a Russian airstrike the day before, March 2, 2022.
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Police officers pass by the wreckage of a building after reported shelling in Kyiv, Ukraine, March 2, 2022.
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A man cuddles a newborn baby in the basement of a maternity hospital, which was converted to a medical ward and used as a shelter amid Russian attacks in Kyiv, Ukraine, March 2, 2022.
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Jordanian nationals who fled the war in Ukraine reunite with relatives at the Marka military airport, Amman, Jordan, upon their evacuation by a military flight from Romania on March 2, 2022.
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Distraught women and children fleeing war-torn Ukraine wait to cross into Poland at the Korczowa crossing, March 2, 2022 near Korczowa, Poland.
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Ukrainians work on a camouflage net for the army in Lviv, Ukraine, March 2, 2022.
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Rocket fire launched by Russian invaders damages a five-story hostel in Vasylkiv, Ukraine.
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A Ukrainian armored personnel carrier (APC) BTR-4 destroyed as a result of fight not far from the center of Kharkiv, Ukraine, Feb. 28, 2022, a little over 30 miles from the Russian-Ukrainian border.
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A school is reduced to a pile of rubble after fight in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Feb. 28, 2022. The fight was only a little over 30 miles from the Russian-Ukrainian border.
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Ukrainian territorial defense forces hug in a basement used as a military base on the fifth day since start of large-scale Russian attacks in the country, in Dnipro, Ukraine, Feb. 28, 2022.
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A woman stands amid damage due to armed conflict in Donetsk region under the control of pro-Russian separatists, Ukraine, Feb. 28, 2022.
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A refugee sits by a fire after crossing the Ukrainian-Polish border, Medyka, Poland, on Feb. 28, 2022.
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People construct barricades outside schools and public buildings on the fifth day since Russia invaded Ukraine, in Dnipro, Ukraine, Feb. 28, 2022.
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Refugees from Ukraine gather to take a bus from the border crossing in Medyka to Przemysl, eastern Poland, Feb. 28, 2022.
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Refugees from Ukraine arrive at a temporary shelter on Feb. 28, 2022, near Korczowa, Poland.
Maxar/GettyImages
A large deployment of Russian ground forces containing hundreds of military vehicles are seen in convoy northeast of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 27, 2022. The convoy —which extends for more than 3.25 miles — contains fuel, logistics and armored vehicles moving towards Kyiv.
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A boy plays on a swing in front of a damaged residential block hit by an early morning missile strike on Feb. 25, 2022, in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Pierre Crom/Getty Images
Firemen extinguish a fire inside a residential building damaged by a missile on Feb. 25, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine.
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Ukrainian servicemen ride on tanks towards the front line with Russian forces in the Lugansk region of Ukraine on Feb. 25, 2022.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
People gather in a shelter during Russian shelling, in Mariupol, Ukraine, Feb. 24, 2022.
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People clean out damaged homes after attacks in Yasinovataya (Yasynuvata) controlled by the pro-Russian separatists, self-proclaimed so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
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Children leave a damaged home after attacks in Yasinovataya (Yasynuvata) controlled by the pro-Russian separatists, self-proclaimed so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), Ukraine, Feb. 24, 2022.
Emilio Morenatti/AP
A woman holds her baby as they leave Kyiv, Ukraine, by bus on Feb. 24, 2022. Russia launched a wide-ranging attack on Ukraine on Thursday, hitting cities and bases with airstrikes or shelling, as civilians piled into trains and cars to flee.
Pierre Crom/Getty Images
Inhabitants of Kyiv leave the city following pre-offensive missile strikes of the Russian armed forces and Belarus, Feb. 24, 2022, in Kyiv, Ukraine. Overnight, Russia began a large-scale attack on Ukraine, with explosions reported in multiple cities and far outside the restive eastern regions held by Russian-backed rebels.
Sergei Supinksy/AFP via Getty Images
Police and security personnel inspect gather by the remains of a shell landed in a street in Kyiv on Feb. 24, 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine on Thursday with explosions heard soon after across the country and its foreign minister warning a “full-scale invasion” was underway.
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Ukrainian firefighters arrive to rescue civilians after an airstrike hit an apartment complex in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, Feb. 24, 2022.
Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images
Black smoke rises from a military airport in Chuguyev near Kharkiv on Feb. 24, 2022.
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Firefighters work on a building caught on fire after the eastern Ukraine town of Chuguiv was bombed,, Feb. 24, 2022, as Russian armed forces are trying to invade Ukraine from several directions.
Efrem Lukatsky/AP
A man stands in front of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter gunship that is seen in a field after a forced landing outside Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
A woman walks past the debris in the aftermath of Russian shelling, in Mariupol, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022.
AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda
Ukrainian servicemen sit atop armored personnel carriers driving on a road in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022.
AP Photo/Sergei Grits
A metallurgical plant is seen on the outskirts of the city of Mariupol, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022. The city is one of many attacked by Russian forces.
Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
Smoke rises from an air defense base in the aftermath of an apparent Russian strike in Mariupol, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022.
Sergei Grits/AP
Damaged radar arrays and other equipment is seen at a Ukrainian military facility outside Mariupol, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022.
Andrew Marienko/AP
People stand next to fragments of military equipment on the street in the aftermath of an apparent Russian strike in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022.
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This photograph taken on Feb. 24, 2022, shows smoke rising near the town of Hostomel and the Antonov Airport, in northwest Kyiv.
Efrem Lukatsky/AP
Smoke and flame rise from the debris of a private house in the aftermath of Russian shelling outside Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022.
UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES
Western weapons, including U.S. HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, have boosted Ukraine's military’s capability, allowing it to target Russian munitions depots, bridges and other key facilities with precision and impunity.
In a major symbolic victory in April, the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva missile cruiser, exploded and sank while on patrol after reportedly being hit by a Ukrainian missile. That dealt a heavy blow to Russia's pride and forced it to limit naval operations.
Another big win for Ukraine came when Russian troops pulled back from strategic Snake Island, located on shipping lanes near Odesa, following relentless Ukrainian attacks. The retreat reduced the threat of a seaborne Russian attack on Odesa, helping pave the way for a deal to resume Ukrainian grain exports.
Russia suffered a new blow this month when a series of explosions at an airbase and munitions depot in Crimea. While Kyiv stopped short of taking credit for the blasts, there was no doubt about Ukrainian involvement. The Russians acknowledged that sabotage was behind one blast and alleged unsafe handling of munitions caused another — an explanation ridiculed by Ukraine.
The explosions, which were followed by drone attacks, underlined the vulnerability of Crimea, which holds symbolic value for Russia and is key to sustaining its operations in the south. They demonstrated that Ukrainian forces are capable of striking far behind the front line, and Ukrainian officials warn that the 19-kilometer (12-mile) Crimean bridge, the longest in Europe, could be the next target.
Both Russia and Ukraine mostly focus on the casualties they inflict on each other, avoiding mention of their own losses.
But Ukraine's military chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said Monday that nearly 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in action.
The Russian Defense Ministry last reported its casualties on March 25, one month into the war, when it said 1,351 soldiers had been killed and 3,825 were wounded.
Western estimates of Russian dead have ranged from more than 15,000 to over 20,000 — more than the Soviet Union lost during its 10-year war in Afghanistan.
The Pentagon said last week that between 70,000 to 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in action — losses that have eroded Moscow's capability to conduct big offensives.
The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights has recorded over 5,500 civilian deaths in the war, but noted the actual numbers could be significantly higher.
The invasion has created the largest postwar refugee crisis in Europe. The U.N. refugee agency says a third of Ukrainians have fled their homes, with more than 6.6 million displaced within the country and over 6.6 million more across the continent.
Refugees Fleeing from Ukraine
Source: UNHCR
WHAT'S NEXT?
The war's outcome will depend on the ability of Russia and Ukraine to muster additional resources.
While Ukraine has conducted a mobilization and declared a goal to form a 1 million-member military, Russia has continued to rely on a limited contingent of volunteers, an approach reflecting Kremlin fears that a mass mobilization could fuel discontent and destabilize the country.
Moscow has opted for interim steps, trying to encourage people to sign contracts with the military, increasingly engaging private contractors such as the Wagner Group, and even rounding up some prisoners for service — half-measures unable to meet the needs for any big offensives.
“Unless Russia mobilizes its population and mobilizes its industry, it cannot bring to bear the weight of people and industry in order to create a much bigger, more effective force, and therefore, it will have to consider how it hangs on to what it has already taken,” retired British Gen. Richard Barrons said.
Ukraine also lacks resources for any quick reclamation of its territory, with Barrons estimating it could take well into next year to amass a force capable of driving the Russians out.
“It can only do it if the West provides political will, money at about $5 to 6 billion a month, weapons like long-range artillery, the ammunition that supports that artillery and then enables the logistics and medical support that allows Ukraine to build a million-strong army,” said Barrons, co-chair of the consulting group Universal Defence & Security Solutions.
He said the West should be prepared to continue supporting Ukraine for a long time, despite soaring energy prices and other economic challenges stemming from sanctions imposed on Russia.
Abandoning Ukraine, he said, would send a message “to Russia and China and everybody else that the West does not have the stomach to stand up for its friends or even its own interests.”
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Associated Press writers Danica Kirka in London and Yuras Karmanau in Tallinn, Estonia, contributed.
