We all know how warm and dry it’s been this year. Unfortunately, Storm Team4 is expecting this will lead to a “less than ideal foliage season,” Meteorologist Amelia Draper said.
Here’s a big-picture look at Storm Team4’s fall forecast and fall foliage forecast.
First, here's a look at the leaves
Temperatures, sun exposure and rainfall affect the length and brilliance of fall color. For vivid color, the ideal conditions are bright, warm days and cool nights.
Drought and heat lead to stressed trees. Stressed trees produce dull colors and drop their leaves early.
Unfortunately, many trees in our area are stressed, and we’re already seeing signs of early leaf drop in some places.
This map from the site Explore Fall shows the fall foliage stress outlook, based on soil moisture and temperature anomalies.
The darker color indicates high foliage stress. Areas with high stress and moderate stress trees can be seen outside the D.C. metropolitan area.
The U.S. Drought Monitor also echoes the concern for stressed trees, with areas north and west of D.C. in moderate to severe drought.
“Factor in 2023 as one of warmest years on record, and by the time we typically expect peak color around Halloween, a lot of the leaves could be brown or off the trees," Draper said.
Here’s Storm Team4’s forecast for the fall
October is set to have temperatures below average, and above average precipitation, Storm Team4 Chief Meteorologist Doug Kammerer said. A coastal storm or nor’easter could hit in the second or third week in October, with lots of rainfall.
November is expected to have about average temperatures and precipitation.
