Summer 2021: Storm Team4's DC, Maryland, Virginia Weather Outlook

Storm Team4 Chief Meteorologist Doug Kammerer uses data from previous years to make temperature, storm and other weather predictions for this summer

NBC Universal, Inc.

To make my forecast for 2021’s summer outlook, I first took a look at past years with similar conditions. This year, my analogue year is 1996.

That summer was a relatively cool one, with below average numbers for 90-degree days and without really intense heat. It also saw above average rainfall.

I think this summer will be close to that. We usually average about 46 days of 90-degree heat a year. This year I am going to stay right around that number and predict between 42-48 days of 90-degree heat. As for 100-degree days -- I don’t think this summer will see a single one.

Moving on to storms and more dramatic weather events, I’m predicting we’ll see 16-20 tropical systems, 8-10 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

Importantly, my data suggests that we’ll have an increased chance of a tropical storm or hurricane moving up the east coast toward our area. This will be something we’ll really have to watch out for, as these storms could bring wind and a lot of rain.

I would time the chances of a tropical system between late June and early July and a potentially larger storm in late August and early September.

Contact Us