To make my forecast for 2021’s summer outlook, I first took a look at past years with similar conditions. This year, my analogue year is 1996.
That summer was a relatively cool one, with below average numbers for 90-degree days and without really intense heat. It also saw above average rainfall.
I think this summer will be close to that. We usually average about 46 days of 90-degree heat a year. This year I am going to stay right around that number and predict between 42-48 days of 90-degree heat. As for 100-degree days -- I don’t think this summer will see a single one.
Moving on to storms and more dramatic weather events, I’m predicting we’ll see 16-20 tropical systems, 8-10 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
Importantly, my data suggests that we’ll have an increased chance of a tropical storm or hurricane moving up the east coast toward our area. This will be something we’ll really have to watch out for, as these storms could bring wind and a lot of rain.
I would time the chances of a tropical system between late June and early July and a potentially larger storm in late August and early September.