How MLB shortstop market could explode before Turner gets paid originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
Over the weekend, while discussing his own recently inked contract extension, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo indicated the team would like to re-sign star shortstop Trea Turner, saying the two sides talked terms earlier this year. He gave the impression Turner could be a priority to re-sign despite the team's tendency to let position players walk (Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Ian Desmond) in lieu of paying pitchers (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin).
Beyond that trend of the franchise, there is also a good deal of uncertainty about what Turner could earn, and not in the usual sense because he's an ascending young player. Turner plays shortstop, a position that has historically not been among the most lucrative in baseball, but that is nearing a major change in the market. Turner is one of many star shortstops set to hit free agency in the next three offseasons.
First, let's look at the lack of money being spent on shortstops at the moment. Currently, there are no shortstops with contracts bigger than $120 million. Elvis Andrus and Xander Bogaerts both carry that number and are tied for the 33rd-largest contract in baseball.
Bogaerts leads all shortstops in AAV (average annual value) at $20 million, but that is 37th among all players in yearly salary. In fact, there is a higher paid player at every position on the diamond, including catcher (Buster Posey) and second base (Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano).
Only two shortstops are making more than $15 million per season: Bogaerts and Francisco Lindor ($17.5M). Compare that to third base, where eight players are making more than $15 million with Nolan Arenado ($35M) and Manny Machado ($30M) leading the way.
Somehow, shortstop has become devalued to the point it is essentially the lowest-paid paid position in the sport. Even relief pitchers earn more by some measures with four relievers taking in above $15 million per season.
All of that, however, is about to change, and likely before Turner's next contract is finalized. That is because right before he hits free agency, a wave of other star shortstops will get paid and they are likely to set the market much higher than it is right now.
This upcoming winter will be a relatively quiet one at the position, but after next season Lindor (Indians), Corey Seager (Dodgers), Trevor Story (Rockies), Javier Baez (Cubs) and Carlos Correa (Astros) are all set to be available. All five are All-Stars in their 20s.
The following offseason, when Turner is due to be a free agent, Dansby Swanson (Braves) and Tim Anderson (White Sox) will be in the same boat. Bogaerts could be as well, if he chooses to opt out of his contract with the Red Sox.
Add it all up and eight of the 12-or-so best shortstops in baseball are all due to get paid within the next three years. And a good number of them could have extensions before Turner does, meaning his deal could be framed in comparison.
At this point, it looks like Lindor and Seager could set the market as arguably the two best players on the list. They are likely to demolish the current league-leading deals of Bogaerts and Andrus. And Turner may come in not far behind, especially if he continues to take his game to new heights as he has this season.
As Rizzo said himself over the weekend: “He’s got a bright future...going to make a lot of money.”
Exactly how much is anyone's guess.
Salary figures via Spotrac.com
