6 Lineup Changes the Capitals Could Consider for Game 3 Vs. Islanders

The Capitals enter Game 3 against the New York Islanders down 2-0 in their best of seven series. While a loss on Sunday would not technically eliminate Washington, it's hard to see how the Caps could mount a comeback given how they have played. Make no mistake, Game 3 is a must-win for Washington if there is any hope at coming back and defeating the Islanders.

But if the Caps are going to win, changes have to be made. They cannot simply come out with the same lineup and hope for better results. On Saturday, head coach Todd Reirden did in fact indicate that some changes may be coming

"It's the most important game of the year for us, obviously, so we're going to put the 20 best guys on the ice that give us a chance to have success," Reirden said. "We've put a lot of time and thought into that and we feel like we're going to be able to do that [Sunday]. You'll learn more as we get closer to game time."

Here are some possible lineup changes Reirden can consider and whether or not they would have the desired effect.

The change: Replace Travis Boyd at third-line center

How likely is it?

It's a real possibility.

Boyd was on the NHL roster for almost the entire season and really entrenched himself as the next man in on offense. Chandler Stephenson was even traded away because Boyd beat him out. When the Caps had their backs against the wall on Friday, however, Boyd played only 6:38. Nicklas Backstrom played more than that in Game 1, a game in which he did not play in the second or third periods. I get that Boyd doesn't play on the power play or penalty kill so that is going to affect his playing time, but if you are playing someone only 6:38, especially when he's not even on the fourth line, clearly you don't trust him in this situation so perhaps we could see someone take his place for Game 3.

I don't think Nic Dowd will move off the fourth line so we are talking about a black ace like Philippe Maillet or Brian Pinho, two players Reirdne has referenced recently as players he could see making the lineup.

Or even, dare I say, Connor McMichael?

I wrote an entire column about why the team should not play McMichael, but heck, if you're only going to play him 6:38, screw it. Why not?

Will it work?

Probably not.

There are no players the Caps are going to plug into the third line who will be series changers and yes, that includes McMichael. The best thing any replacement can do is give Reirden a center he can trust enough that he will actually use that third line and not to lean too heavily on his top-six. You can't have the third line getting 6 to 8 minutes and the top line get more than 20. That's just not going to work.

The change: Move Ilya Kovalchuk into the top six

How likely is it?

Kovalchuk was brought in as a player who could add scoring depth to the third line and plug into the top six as needed. Well, two games into a playoff series and the Caps have only two 5-on-5 goals and only two players who have recorded goals. It's needed.

There are a number of different combinations Reirden could try in the top six to fit in Kovalchuk. Most likely Jakub Vrana would move to the third line and Kovalchuk to the second. This would mean moving players to sides they don't typically play on to make it work, but here's a possible projection of what this could look like:

Alex Ovechkin - Evgeny Kuznetsov - T.J. Oshie
Tom Wilson - Lars Eller - Ilya Kovalchuk
Jakub Vrana - Travis Boyd or his replacement - Carl Hagelin

Whether it's with the lineup I projected or another combination, I think moving Kovalchuk up is a real possibility.

Reirden has been more aggressive with Kovalchuk than I thought he would be when the team first acquired him. I thought there was no way defensive coach would put Ovechkin, Kuznetsov and Kovalchuk on a line together, but he does it in limited situations such as when the team is coming off a penalty kill and those three players have been on the bench the last two minutes.

What's more, a shuffling of the tops six may be needed given Vrana's struggles.

There are two major issues with this move. First, Oshie and Wilson should both stay in the top-six and both are right wings so one will have to move left. Second, Kovalchuk played only 8:16 in Game 2. Why would Reirden play him that little in one game, then promote him to the second line in the next?

Will it work?

The offense can't be any worse, could it?

Here's the benefit to this. Instead of some of these other options that are replacing NHL players with prospects who aren't series changers, this is a top-six player you would be adding to the top-six. You are not taking out one player and replacing him with someone worse and hoping it works out, you're flexing your offensive depth.

The change: Replace Michal Kempny on the top pair

How likely is it?

Reirden has to be at least considering it at this point. Michal Kempny may not be the defensive liability he was for much of the regular season, but he's not a top-pair player right now, either. That Kempny just isn't coming back in the 2019-20 season. You can hope for next season, but for now, he doesn't have it.

There are two very obvious candidates you can replace Kempny with on the top pair. Just last season when Kempny was injured, the team cycled through defensemen trying to find the right fit to play next to Carlson. Jonas Siegenthaler made his postseason debut replacing Christian Djoos on the third pair and by the next game, he was on the top pair with Carlson. He played very well in that role and should be even better now with another year of experience under his belt. Why not reunite the two knowing they have chemistry together?

Yet, we haven't seen Reirden really reunite those two at all and a more likely option would be Brenden Dillon who played on the top pair in the regular season after he was acquired at the trade deadline.

Will it work?

Defense has not been the biggest issue for the Caps this series, but moving either Siegenthaler or Dillon to the top pair will be both a message to the team that the first two games of the series weren't good enough and should strengthen the top pair. It's an easy move that should make the team better.

The change: Insert Martin Fehervary or Radko Gudas into the defense

How likely is it?

It's possible.

I keep hearing how comfortable Dmitry Orlov is on his off-side, but I still don't see it. He is slow to retrieve the puck off the boards because of course he is, he's playing on his off-side. Is Orlov playing the right of the second pair among the top five reasons the Caps are down int he series? Nope, but I also don't think it's much of an asset either.

Gudas is a right-shot defenseman so he would slot in naturally on that second pair, or replace Nick Jensen on the third if Jensen moves up to the second.

Fehervary, meanwhile, is a left shot, but in his lone game in the round robin against the Boston Bruins he played on the right and played really well. His minutes were limited, but not sheltered as he got a lot of neutral and defensive zone time. He also had a game-high seven hits. Throwing the body around is a definite plus against the Islanders.

There is a reason Reirden got Fehervary in one of the round robin games and there's a reason he had him play on the right. This at least has to be considered a possibility, though his limited minutes may signal it is a remote one.

The real obstacle here is if you put someone in, who comes out? You are not taking out Orlov, you are simply moving him to the left somewhere. Does Dillon or Siegenthaler move up to replace Kempny and Orlov replace one of them? Possibly, but has Kempny been bad enough that you are going to take him out of the lineup altogether? I'm not so sure.

Will it work?

It depends on which player you use.

Adding Gudas will not improve the defense, period. There's a case to be made that adding a big, physical player could be a benefit in a physical series, but he's not a top-four player which is where he would really be needed and the playoffs have a way of exposing all of a team's weaknesses. Add him in and it's hard to see how the team would improve because of it.

Fehervary is intriguing. His upside is through the roof, but again, playoffs expose weaknesses. If he's not ready, he will become a liability really fast.

I'm also not in love with the idea of moving Jensen up and having either Gudas or Fehervary play on the third pair. While this may make more sense for Gudas and Fehervary, Jensen is a third pair player and at this point the team is probably better off keeping Orlov where he is than moving Jensen up.

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The change: Put in Daniel Sprong

How likely is it?

Sprong was flying in the team's final intrasquad scrimmage so if you want a jolt of energy and offense, he's the guy most likely to provide that. We are not talking about some scrub either, he has 97 NHL games of experience. In 2018-19, he scored 14 goals and five assists in just 47 games. There's also a pretty clear candidate for who to replace.

Sprong is a right wing so most likely he would go in for Garnet Hathaway. You hate to take out a physical player like Hathaway from a physical series like this one, but in two games the only thing Hathway has provide the team is six PIMs and all three penalties were ill-advised.

Will it work?

Probably.

The fourth line has been non-existent thus far in this series. Sprong would at least add an extra scoring threat to a team in desperate need of goals. You may be putting more burden on Wilson to respond to all the rough stuff by taking Hathaway out, but I don't think you can keep Hathaway in just in case you need someone to fight at this point.

The change: Start Vitek Vanecek over Braden Holtby

How likely is it?

If the answer is not zero, it's close to zero.

Brent Johnson brought up the possibility on Caps Postgame Live after Game 2, but I can't see this happening. Olie Kolzig, now a professional development coach with the team, said of Vanecek's upside that he could be a No. 2 in the NHL. Clearly the team does not see Vanecek as having the same upside as Ilya Samsonov because Samsonov spent the whole season in the NHL despite the fact that he has a higher cap hit. This was a year the team really could have used every penny they could get under the cap ceiling and yet the kept Samsonov as the backup despite the added salary cap complications that came with it initially when the team started the season right underneath the ceiling.

I have not seen anything to make me think Vanecek could be the difference in this series, nor do I think the team would respond well to Reirden replacing the Vezina and Cup-winning Holtby with Vanecek, even if those years are well behind Holtby. The players aren't dumb, they know who Vanecek is and what his upside is.

Will it work?

No.

Look, Capitals fans need to realize that not every prospect is going to be a superstar. It's OK. And really this isn't just unique to Caps, fans of every team think this way. All prospects are either elite or busts when really the vast majority fall somewhere in between. Vanecek is not a superstar goalie. Heck, he's probably not even an NHL starter. He's a backup NHL goalie and there's nothing wrong with that. Is he capable of winning a game here or there? Absolutely, but putting in a backup caliber goalie with no NHL experience into a playoff game would not only be a tough position to put him in, it would also reek of desperation and mentally, that would be a tough pill for the team to swallow.

Can a team rally around a goalie and play lights out in front of him? Yes, we saw Carolina do that with zamboni driver David Ayres, but we are not talking about a random regular season game here, we are talking about a playoff game. There's no reason to believe the Islanders would not be able to get to Vanecek the way they have been able to get to Holtby and really, once you replace Holtby with a backup with no NHL experience, there's no way to go back to him. This just isn't an option.

When Samsonov went down, the playoff hopes of the team were placed squarely on Holtby's shoulders. The crease belongs to him at least for one more postseason and the team is going to live or die with him.

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