Washington Commanders

National Expectations Don't Meet Local Excitement For Commanders–But Who Cares?

Locally, folks are excited, and that’s fun for a city where there’s been far more investigations than celebrations when it comes to the Burgundy and Gold. Nationally, who cares, at least until they start playing the games.

KANSAS CITY, MO – APRIL 28: Washington Commanders fans react to their teams selection in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft  at Union Station on April 28, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
David Eulitt/Getty Images

When the NFL calendar hits May, coaches and front office executives largely know what their team will look like in the fall. The draft is over and free agency is mostly done. Barring big trades or unfortunate injuries, roster building is complete.

And for the Commanders, the results look encouraging. Or discouraging.

It all depends on where you look.

Washington spent most of their offseason capital improving an already stout defense. The Commanders biggest spending came in a new contract for defensive tackle Daron Payne, who had a career best 2022 season and made his first Pro Bowl.

In the draft, the Commanders spent their first two draft picks on defensive backs in Emmanuel Forbes and Quan Martin. If the draft capital was laid out in actual dollars, Washington spent more on the defensive backs than the rest of their draft combined.

So of the biggest player personnel moves this year (first-round pick, top free agent signing), Ron Rivera’s club chose not to help young quarterback Sam Howell and instead double and triple down on the defense with Payne and Forbes.

That’s not to say Rivera didn’t look to upgrade a pedestrian 2022 offense. The absolute biggest change will be the decision to roll with Howell instead of releasing Carson Wentz and not re-signing Taylor Heinicke.

If Howell is great, Rivera will be celebrated. If Howell is good, Rivera will be commended.

If Howell isn’t, Rivera might be gone.

To upgrade the offense, the Commanders signed two new offensive linemen in Nick Gates, the presumed new starting center, and Andrew Wylie, the presumed new starting right tackle. Improved protection for Howell could be a boon for the offense.

Beyond Howell, Rivera also made the major change to fire former offensive coordinator Scott Turner and bring in Eric Bieniemy, most recently a Super Bowl winner with Kansas City.

Bieniemy’s track record from the Chiefs is nearly impeccable, with two Super Bowl wins in the last five years and one of the most explosive offenses in NFL history. Unfairly for Bieniemy, there’s also some Catch 22 configurations with the numbers. Was Kansas City good because of Bieniemy, or was it a product of future Hall of Famers like head coach Andy Reid, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce?

A charismatic figure and exciting play caller, Bieniemy will get the chance to answer those questions this fall.

If Washington’s offense performs this year, there will be no Catch 22 aspect. Bieniemy will get the credit. If the offense doesn’t improve from 2022’s pedestrian numbers, the questions will be plenty, though not just for the play caller.

What’s ironic about Washington this season, at least anecdotally, is that it appears local fans are excited about Howell and this team. Much of that optimism might be related to the pending sale of the team and the ouster of Dan Snyder, but folks also seem to like the second-year passer along with earned excitement about the receiver group.

It could also be a result of the veteran QB carousel running through Ashburn the last few years. Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Carson Wentz did not really excite the masses. Whether Howell is good or not remains to be seen, but plenty of fans like the idea of a hometown drafted QB getting a shot instead of another team’s export.

The problem, however, is that national experts don’t share many Commanders fans' excitement.

ESPN researcher Mike Clay ranked Washington’s quarterback situation the last in the league. Another ESPN talking head, draft analyst Matt Miller, recently said that Howell “is not a playoff-caliber” QB.

When the NFL opens the 2023 season this fall, 22 of 32 teams will start a quarterback drafted in the first round or have a first-round rookie on the bench. Washington is certainly eschewing that pattern, rolling with a fifth-rounder in Howell and backing him up with veteran Jacoby Brissett, a 3rd-rounder in 2016.

And most Las Vegas sports books actually moved the Commanders' win total for the coming season down from 7.5 wins to 6.5 wins, a damning indictment of the organization after not adding more offensive talent in the draft.

Experts can be wrong though.

Howell has a strong arm and good athleticism. He showed flashes of great play in his lone 2022 start, a Week 18 win over Dallas.

And besides, if Washington’s going to win and get a playoff bid this season, it will rely on the defense. Right?

That’s tricky.

Defensively Washington performed well last season. The unit ranked 7th in points allowed and 3rd in yards allowed.

Year-over-year defensive numbers can be volatile though. In 2021, Washington ranked 25th in points allowed and 22nd in yards allowed.

Dig deeper, and Washington showed tremendous improvement on 3rd down defense, going from 31st in the league in 2021 to the best league-wide in 2022.

That’s a tremendous turnaround, but it is sustainable? Is the reality somewhere in the middle?

It’s not just Washington that showed a high variance in defensive rankings.

Across the league, only the 49ers ranked in the Top 5 in yards allowed in both 2021 and 2022. Only the Bills ranked Top 5 in points allowed in the last two seasons.

Zoom out further and multiple teams ranked Top 10 in yards allowed over the last two years: Buffalo, New England and Denver. Similarly in points allowed, New Orleans and Dallas both landed in the Top 10 in each of the last two seasons.

The point remains: playing elite defense is hard to do year over year.

Injuries can always be a factor in defensive consistency, as can the variety and quality of opposing offenses.

For example, in 2022 the Commanders played four opponents from the AFC South and went 3-1 in those games. The four quarterbacks Washington faced in those games were Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill, Indianapolis’ Sam Ehlinger and Houston’s Davis Mills.

Both the Colts and Texans made moves to replace those starters, drafting QBs in the Top 5 of last month’s draft, and the Titans added a second-round QB. Only Lawrence is considered a long-term franchise QB.

Now compare that to Washington’s 2023 AFC divisional opponent. In the AFC East the Commanders will face Josh Allen of the Bills, Tua Tagovailoa of the Dolphins, Mac Jones of the Patriots and Aaron Rodgers of the Jets.

That’s quite a different list.

Few things are certainties in pro football, but one definitely is: nobody knows what will happen. There are massive surprises every year.

The Eagles dominant ascent to the top of the NFC was not expected in 2022, and nobody predicted the Bengals to reach the Super Bowl the prior season.

Washington’s defense could continue its elite level of play. Howell could emerge as a star. FedEx Field might bump like it did during Robert Griffin III’s magical rookie season.

Nobody knows.

Locally, folks are excited, and that’s fun for a city where there’s been far more investigations than celebrations when it comes to the Burgundy and Gold.

Nationally, who cares, at least until they start playing the games.

Contact Us