For the better part of three seasons, Notre Dame's ability to handle business at home was less a statistical trend and more a law of physics.
The Irish would rack up a score higher than a Saturday golfer at Augusta, mix in a pinch of defense, and march on to the next game.
Expecting otherwise would be like biting into a popsicle only to scald your tongue. It simply didn't make sense. Forty-five times in a row it worked to perfection.
In Washington, Georgetown's offense performed to such a level of precision you might think they played with a blueprint, not a playbook. The only surprise, as the Hoyas towered over the Big East, was that they didn't have to stop for oil changes between baskets. Now, they're trying to articulate exactly how they let Seton Hall get the best of them.
But Georgetown, even Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich doesn't have this much explaining to do.
And with two of its supposed best teams playing like a DePaul tribute band, the Big East's superiority seems about as shaky as your E-trade portfolio.
But a three-game losing streak is about where the similarities end between these two barely-ranked teams.
Georgetown is in a slump. Notre Dame, which hosts Marquette tonight, is in trouble.
Sure, the Irish have yet to do a hardwood tribute to their football team, but Mike Brey's club hasn't played as tough of a league schedule as the Hoyas. Of the other eight teams that have been ranked in the Big East, the Irish have only played four, with its only win over Georgetown at home. Notre Dame has six games left against the Big East's answer to Murderer's Row; three are on the road, as is a trip to Providence (5-2 in the Big East), Cincinnati (like Notre Dame 3-4) and a reeling, but still dangerous, UCLA. Georgetown, meanwhile, has played five with a road win over Connecticut, a home win over Syracuse, and a road loss to Pittsburgh already out of the way.
Notre Dame's RPI already looks like the home run total of a steroid-addled slugger, hovering in the low-to-mid 60s, and their Pomeroy rating is hardly more attractive, plopping at 46. So what at first was a race to ensure a favorable NCAA seeding has, almost overnight, become a drive to survive.
So exactly why is the luck of the Irish turning?
For starters, the Irish play defense with all the enthusiasm you bring to a 1040 form. They don't turn opposing teams over (they're in the bottom nine in the nation in defensive turnover rate), they don't create steals and they don't block shots.
But this is nothing new. Even though Notre Dame's defensive efficiency rating is at its lowest point in at least its last six seasons, defense has never been the hallmark of the Irish under Brey.
It's their grab-your-calculator-and-buy-new-batteries offense that makes Notre Dame stand out.
But recently, other than reigning Big East player of the year Luke Harangody, their offense has faltered.
Harangody has led the Irish in points and rebounds for the last 11 games and is averaging 24.8 points per game and 13.1 rebounds for the season. But, for the last few games at least, you could find a better performance from a supporting cast in a Damon Wayans movie.
Tory Jackson, the Irish's do-it-all athlete on the perimeter, has an effective field goal percentage of 39 over the past three games. (Effective field goal percentage gives 50 percent more credit for made 3-pointers.) Long-distance ace Kyle McAlarney played well against Louisville and Syracuse, but dropped a 3-for-15 effort shooting night against UConn, his worst shooting night since an 0-for-7 bomb against Loyola in the second game of the season. Unfortunately for the Irish, Ryan Ayers, who has been one of Notre Dame's most efficient players all season, finished with two points as well.
As a team, Notre Dame shot 35.5 percent against Syracuse and 32.9 percent against UConn. The Irish need fireworks to overcome their defensive liabilities. What they've gotten is something more like sparklers in winter. Notre Dame's offensive efficiency high water mark in the last three games has been 93.8, a number they dipped below just three times each of the last two seasons and not once in 2006.
All of which leaves Brey and the Irish in a must-win situation and tinkering with his lineup against Marquette. Lose tonight and Notre Dame heads on a road trip to Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and UCLA with a 3-5 Big East mark and a path to the NCAA Tournament that might require a little luck and a GPS system. Even when they return home, the Irish have to face Louisville.
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Marquette will likely have no answer for Harangody, but in the Big East, no wins are promised.
Ask Georgetown about that.
But unlike Notre Dame, Georgetown has a bigger margin for error. The Hoyas have a road win over UConn and a home victory over Syracuse and have faced four of the top 13 teams in the RPI, including a narrow loss to No. 1 Duke and a victory over No. 13 Memphis and No. 8 UConn. Their RPI is a selection-committee friendly six, and as Big East paths go, the Hoyas' upcoming schedule is about as good as it gets. Of their remaining 11 games, six are against teams checking the NIT bracketology report or trying to remember exactly what CBI stands for.
After Sunday's loss to Seton Hall, the Hoyas can't exactly overlook anyone, but this is the same team that beat UConn on the road and picked apart Syracuse.
Bet against the Hoyas' NCAA Tournament hopes if you like, but go ahead and parlay it on that Lions Super Bowl wager. Each have about the same chance of paying off.
Georgetown isn't without its problems. They're struggling to score from beyond the arc - hitting just 5-of-38 in losses to West Virginia and Seton Hall - and this is compounded by their inability to rebound. The Hoyas are scraping the bottom of the nation in defensive rebounding.
Meanwhile, their defense has turned in a positively Notre Dame effort in its last seven games, allowing every team they've faced an above average offensive efficiency rating.
But the Hoyas, unlike the Irish, have proved they can hang with, and beat, the nation's best while Notre Dame has just three wins over teams ranked in the top 100 in the Pomeroy ratings.
Will both teams make the NCAA Tournament?
Maybe. It's hard to imagine either team will continue to shoot as poorly as they have in recent games, or Georgetown's defensive intensity to remain lower than the frigid D.C. temperatures.
But like Notre Dame's chances to win at home, for the first time in recent memory, it's just seems like a possibility, not a law of nature.
Hoyas Slumping, Irish Are in Trouble originally appeared on NCAA Basketball FanHouse on Mon, 26 Jan 2009 16:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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