To say the road goes through the Southwest Division would imply that the top team is likely to be there at the end. But that ignores the other three teams in contention for a title at season's end, most likely. With all due respect to the Pacific and Northwest Divisions, the Southwest is where the big guns lay. While the Pacific may boast the best team in the West, there is no question that the Southwest Division has the hardest road to the title and any team that comes out of it on top has to considered a title contender. But there are questions here just like every team. So the fans of these teams must be timid, right?
As we gaze into our spherical prognostication device, the air becomes heavy with the sound of buzzing. The Hornets, with a new Fleur de Bee and new unis, come in after winning the division last year but losing the war to the Spurs in seven games. They lost Jannero Pargo to Europe, but brought in Big Game James 2.0, James Posey, giving them a reliable veteran shooter off the bench. The team is spearheaded by young All-Stars and one of the best coaches in the game in Byron Scott. Still, this is a team that was awful due to injuries two years ago. Is there any fear of a letdown in the Big Easy? Here's what Hornets 24-7's Ryan Schwan had to say.
"As far as level of play, I don't expect a letdown from the Hornets. Their key trio have all consistently gotten better every year, and though
To say that Hornets fans have some swagger is an understatement. But what about the other team he mentioned, the Rockets? This is a club that was one of the top teams in point differential two years ago, and survived a terrible string of injuries to All-Star players to end up as a 5 seed in the playoffs.
But after another first round exit, they added Ron Artest, who will either be the missing defensive beast and offensive weapon to complement Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, or the lit fuse that blows this nucleus sky high. So are Rockets fans weary about Crazy Pills, or still convinced this is finally the year it all comes together? Let's just say they're pretty happy to be in the Danger Zone. Here's what The Dream Shake had to say about how Artest affects the Rockets' championship hopes:
"The addition of Ron Artest to a basketball team is analogous to a fighter pilot willing to go into battle with Maverick. I can just envision the conversation between GM Daryl Morey and Head Coach Rick Adelman last July, summed up thusly:
[Discussing Artest] Morey: Let me ask you something, if you had to go into battle, would you want him on your side?
Adelman: I don't know, I just don't know.
To all the Iceman wannabe NBA rivals out there - yeah, I'm looking at you, Los Angeles and Utah - you are all correct. Ron Artest is dangerous. You don't like him because he's unsafe. And if you throw beer at him, he becomes everyone's problem. But he's also a hell of an instinctive basketball player. Maybe too good (which is why he often breaks off set plays and ignores his coaches on occasion). As a Rockets fan? I'll fly with him this year.
I also have no doubt that Shane Battier and Luis Scola can fill the roles of Wolfman and Slider. *Yes, I am afraid to compare anyone to Goose - the Rockets already have injury issues, so I see no need to jinx anyone this early.* Battier and Scola are exactly what a veteran team like the Rockets need - role players who will do whatever it takes to win. Everyone should be familiar with Battier's game by now. And those who watched the Olympics saw Scola go from focusing on rebounding and defense to being the primary offensive option. Whatever the team needed. Yes, I'm sure Artest, Battier and Scola will have many internal battles and heated competitions to determine who is the Top Gun of Houston's role players, but they will all heed Viper's advice in the end - "just remember, when it's over out there, we're all on the same team."
As for my predictions? Well, last year was some of the best basketball from the Rockets I've seen to date - right up to the part where they got killed by Utah . They definitely crashed and burned. This year? Well, I know it's pretty arrogant, considering the Western Conference company the Rockets are in - but I see them making the NBA Finals. And I like that in my basketball team. "
Okay, so we've got two loaded, talented teams whose fans are confident. But surely the Mavs, the newly appointed kings of late season failure, surely their fans are ready for a huge letdown? After all, Jason Kidd isn't getting any younger, is he? And Josh Howard has kind of had a rough summer after a slump to end the season. They haven't added any significant talent outside of resigning DeSagana Diop for too much money. And they have a new coach coming in. So things are shady and murky in the Big D, right? Right, Jake Kerr from Mavs Moneyball?
"This is probably one of the biggest issues I have with most of the media attention placed on the Mavs--that the team will "implode." The Mavs may have a number of issues--from who will stand out at shooting guard to whether Jason Kidd has any gas left in the tank--but a chemistry and "glue" issue is not one of them. Look at it this way, the team held together remarkably well in a year where over half the team requested a trade if the coach wasn't fired. If Dirk could perform with a smile on his face and Jason Kidd could still be creative with the offense while Dirk-proclaimed "dictator" Avery Johnson was in charge, how do you think they'll perform with a coach like Rick Carlisle, who has been receiving rave reviews from every single player."
Oh, well then. I guess... not. So what exactly is the outlook for Cuban's boys?
"The worst case scenario is that the Mavs are unable to find an answer at the shooting guard position, that Jason Kidd gets torched on defense and can't make himself enough of a weapon on offense, that the center position alters between horrendous and mediocre on offense, and that Josh Howard maintains his playoff performance into the season. Oh, and Jason Terry loses his shooting touch. Actually, if any three of those happen, the Mavs will be hard-pressed to compete in the western conference.
The best case scenario is that Jason Kidd and Jason Terry are turned into potent 1-2 weapon, with Kidd using his size to post up smaller guards, while Terry uses his spectacular shooting to just toss in daggers when Kidd finds him open. Meanwhile, Josh Howard regains his form from two seasons ago, utilizing his drop-back jumper as a complimentary weapon rather than as a go-to move. Carlisle is able to use Diop and Dampier as a strong center tandem as they were during the 67 win season. And, finally, the Mavs regain the intensity they clearly lost last season.
In short, I don't think there is any other team in the NBA that has such a wide potential finish. It would not be unreasonable for them to streak into the NBA finals, and it would not be unreasonable for them to miss the playoffs entirely. "
Allright, but surely the Spurs, having lost Brent Barry to the Rockets, a year older, with Manu Ginobili out till December and still smarting from a brutal series with the Hornets followed by a pistol whipping by arch nemesis Los Angeles, that team has to be pessimistic about this season, right? Graydon Gordian from 48 Minutes of Hell is... well ...
"The age old question when it comes to the Spurs is age. When is their highly touted veteran savvy going to give way to dragging feet and sore knees. For some, like Robert Horry, that transition has already come and gone. But what about the others: Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas, Tim Duncan. All names we associate with high quality basketball, but we've been making that association for a while now. Many think this is finally the season the team as a whole crosses that threshold. But I wouldn't be so sure.
The truth of the matter is, even in their younger days, few of the Spurs relied heavily on athleticism to get the job done. Their glacial pace of play, Duncan's mechanical bank shot, their penchant for creating wide open outside looks. None of these rely on overwhelming physicality. And few squads play defense as such a cohesive unit, which will at least for now continue to alleviate the symptoms of eroding quickness. With that, alongside the injection of a few younger players, such as Roger Mason, Salim Stoudamire and Ian Mahinmi, I wouldn't expect age alone to sink this Spurs roster. Now, if injury continues to rear its ugly head, which it already has in regards to Manu Ginobili, it may be a different story."
So essentially, there's zero budge in the top four teams in the West. That should be fun. How close was the race last year for the division? The Hornets and Spurs ended up tied for first in the division with 56 wins, with the Rockets a single game behind. Dallas was the straggler of the playoff bound, a whopping 5 games back. To put that in perspective, the Mavs would have been the third seed in the East last season. And they're considered "struggling."
But what about the black sheep of the division? The lonely, rebuilding Grizzlies? You know that team that gave the Lakers Pau Gasol? Yeah, they're actually rebuilding in a pretty interesting and effective way. They are also in transition. I asked Josh Coleman from Three Shades of Blue how likely the roster would be the same at year's end:
"In my opinion, there is virtually no chance that the roster is the same 8 months from now. I expect Memphis to be involved in a lot of trade rumors all season long. At least one of the young guards has to be traded at the very least. Also, I find it hard to believe that either a playoff team won't take a chance on a contract year motivated Antoine Walker as a 3 month rental or that a team won't be looking to unload a talented, but disgruntled player for a sizeable expiring contract like 'Toine -- $9 million this year with a team option for next year. Call it a hunch, but I think if the team gets any kind of hope of real production from either Darrell Arthur or Darko Milicic at PF, then Hakim Warrick is gone from Memphis as well."
So what's the best scenario for the rebuilding Grizz?
"The best case scenario for this year is the development of the young players so that the franchise knows who to keep and who to trade from the young guard foursome (Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, OJ Mayo, Javaris Crittenton), the continued upward flight of Rudy Gay, that Marc Gasol is a legit NBA post player, that O.J. Mayo is as prepared for the NBA as all the experts think and that all of that results in around 30 wins. That is the most that any reasonable Grizzlies' fan should hope for this season."
Good to know not everyone is drinking the Kool-Aid. So that's where the blogs are at. What's our take?
The Hornets are the new big dogs. Not just because of their Southwestern title last year or the grabbing the #2 seed in the West, but because they're actually getting better. The Hornets are entering their prime, and have added a reliable veteran shooter. Yet they haven't significantly upgraded their bench and are one significant injury away from a major drop-off.
Conversely, the Rockets have showed that they can survive and even thrive without one of their key players. Which is good, considering McGrady's recent statements about his shoulder and knee not being at full health. But with the addition of Ron Artest, we see the Rockets making a big jump this season into second best, finally.
But you can't count the Spurs out until they're out. That's what they've shown over the last eight years. They simply refuse to succumb to the questions that plague them yearly. And lest we forget, it's an odd year. Meanwhile, the Mavs would have to be considered a surprise if they manage to compete for the division or the NBA title. There just aren't a lot of people left with faith in Kidd's abilities still being at the level they need to be to lead this team where they need to go. While this team won't miss the playoffs, there are too many questions on this squad to tremble at their name like we used to.
The Grizzlies are rebuilding, and seem to have a good plan in place to achieve their goals. But there will be growing pains on a club this young. While last year's team was largely discombobulated and aimless, this team seems to bring a lot of energy and a drive to improve. There will be losses, but don't be surprised if this team finds itself close with good teams down the stretch and win a few.
If you were to travel from the future at the end of the season to now and tell us that the Hornets, Rockets, or Spurs finished as the NBA champion, we wouldn't bat an eye. If you told us the Mavs won the Championship, we'd probably raise an eyebrow, but we can see it happening. If you told us the Grizzlies won the Championship, we would be dead, since our heads would explode. So if that happens, keep your Delorean in the garage.
