Skins Super Bowl? Or Just Bust?

Team is darkhorse pick by some to make playoffs

This just in: Depending on who you believe, the Skins could be lousy, good or great.  Thanks for nothing, guys.

When football season starts, so does BS Prediction Season, where anyone with a keyboard, microphone or even a mirror hanging above the sink at the local watering hole knows exactly what's going to happen in each and every game.

It's a wonderful time of year where everyone's an expert.  And because there's no accountability for being wrong, on the off chance that a yammering yahoo stumbles into something correctly, they can crow long and loud -- so long as you forget the 19 straight seasons they were dead wrong before this.

With that as a caveat, how 'bout our boys in the burgundy and gold?

Let's start with the good.  Profootballtalk.com says they're Super Bowl bound.  Whoa!  Larry Michael might not even be that crazy.  Note: He also picks the Bengals to make the playoffs, so take it however you wish.

ESPN's Bill Simmons is high on the hogs, too.  He picks the Skins to win a Wild Card with a 10-6 record, just a smidge behind the first-place Giants.  Note: He also picks the Broncos to make the playoffs, so again, take it however you wish.

None of ESPN's other football experts think the Skins will make the playoffs, but they do love Brian Orakpo to be Defensive Rookie of the Year.

You're probably saying, "What about the stathead number crunchers?"  (And if you're not, please just play along.)

Football Outsiders, which aims to isolate the value of each player, adjusting for defense, strength of schedule and all sorts of other gymnastics, says we shouldn't hold our breath.  Their prediction: 7-9.

Now a team that's 7-9 on paper still could win or lose more games than that, so they make playoff projections by simulating the season with their super computer 10,000 times.  They give the Skins about a 20% chance of making the playoffs.  Boo!  Format their hard drive! 

So who do you trust?  The rumor-mongering proprietor of a popular website, or a soulless computer?  Super Bowl contenders or also-rans?

Reality, as it usually is, is somewhere in the middle.  We'll find out starting Sunday.

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