Despite calls to feature more diverse states at the front of the 2024 presidential primary lineup, a clear majority of Americans - across most age, party, and racial lines - say they’re satisfied with the current tradition of Iowa and New Hampshire holding the first nominating contests of the presidential cycle, according to a new LX News/Morning Consult poll.
Sixty-five percent of Americans responded that they were either “satisfied” or “very satisfied” with Iowa and New Hampshire casting the first presidential primary votes, an uptick of six points from when LX News & Morning Consult asked the same questions almost three years ago.
Sixty-six percent of Black adults also said they were satisfied with the status quo - an uptick of 26 points from three years ago - even though President Biden & the Democratic party have called for more diverse states, including South Carolina and Nevada, to skip to the front of the nomination line.
New Hampshire’s acting secretary of state told LX News the Granite State will do “whatever it takes” to remain at the front of the primary lineup, even moving its 2024 presidential primary into 2023 if necessary.
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Other findings in the poll:
- While satisfaction with the Iowa/New Hampshire tradition was high, only about half of Americans (48%) believe the two states represent their political views well. Iowa and New Hampshire both have lower-than-average minority populations, poverty rates, and rates of residents who consider themselves religious.
- When given a chance to pick which of the under-consideration states should go first in the next election, most respondents (54%) chose the “don’t know/no opinion” option.
- Of the respondents who chose one of the six specific states to go first, 24% chose Georgia; 18% chose South Carolina; 18% chose Michigan; 16% chose Iowa; 13% chose New Hampshire, and only 12% chose Nevada.
“The order of the primary is just such an insular political issue…I don't know that the American people care much about this,” said Morning Consult Senior Politics Reporter Eli Yokley. “The fact that you're seeing some increased satisfaction with this stuff could be attributed to the fact that Joe Biden won [in 2020].
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“When you're having successes under the current system, it may make you less likely to want to move away from it.”
Convenience Drives Voter Turnout
The poll also found Americans cite conveniences, such as polling locations and availability of mail ballots, as major factors as to whether they choose to participate in any given election:
- 76% of respondents said the convenience of polling places was important to whether they voted;
- 66% said waiting times at polling places were important;
- 73% said ease of using voting booths was important;
- 69% said availability of early voting and/or absentee (mail) ballots were important, including 81% of Democrats (+8 points from Jan. 2020) and 61% of Republicans (-10 points from Jan 2020).
- The attitudes toward voting conveniences were nearly identical to the results from January 2020 otherwise.
“People like things to be easy,” Yokley said. “Even large shares of Republican voters want this to be easy [and] think absentee and mail-in ballots should be easy to get them out to vote.”
The LX News/Morning Consult poll surveyed 2,214 U.S. adults from Dec. 7-9, 2022. Margin of Error for the poll is +/- 2 percentage points.
LX News is NBCUniversal Local’s TV and streaming network. Our innovative storytelling approach to news is personal, inspiring and empowers audiences to take part in the conversation. Viewers can watch LX News' in-depth stories, programs, and live channel feed on LX.com (no login required); on cable & broadcast in 45 U.S.-based TV markets; streaming on Peacock, Roku, Apple TV, YouTube TV, Hulu Live, and Fubo TV. Follow on social @NBCLX.
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company delivering insights on what people think in real time. By surveying tens of thousands across the globe every single day, Morning Consult is unmatched in scale and speed: It determines the true measure of what people think and how their decisions impact business, politics and the economy. Industry leaders rely on Morning Consult’s proprietary technology and analysis for real-time, intelligent data to transform information into a competitive advantage.
Noah Pransky is LX News’ National Political Editor, covering Washington and state politics, with a special focus on young voters. His political and investigative work has been honored with national Murrow, Polk, duPont and Cronkite awards, and you can contact him confidentially at noah.pransky@nbcuni.com, or on Facebook, Instagram or Twitter.
