Commanders Betting Odds: Oddsmakers Disrespecting Terry McLaurin With Prop Lines

Oddsmakers disrespecting Terry McLaurin with prop lines originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington

As the 2022 NFL season inches closer, NBC Sports Washington's Pete Hailey and Ethan Cadeaux take a look at a handful of betting props surrounding the Washington Commanders. Next up: will Terry McLaurin go over/under his receiving yards prop?

The Bet: Will Terry McLaurin finish with over/under 1,000.5 receiving yards? (OVER 1,000.5 yards, -120 | UNDER 1,000.5 yards, -110, odds via PointsBet USA)

Ethan's Take:

Throughout both Pete and I's Pressing Questions and Betting Odds series, I've tended to take the more optimistic viewpoint. I will continue to do so here, but in this case, it's just as realistic as optimistic.

Barring a significant injury, Terry McLaurin should easily top the 1,000-yard mark for a third straight season. In fact, it's borderline disrespectful that his season-long prop is that low.

In 2020, McLaurin finished with 87 receptions for 1,118 yards and four touchdowns. His quarterbacks were Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Alex Smith and Taylor Heinicke.

Last fall, No. 17 caught 77 passes for 1,053 yards and five scores. The signal-callers throwing him the ball? Heinicke, Allen, Garrett Gilbert and, for just 16 snaps, Ryan Fitzpatrick.

No, Carson Wentz is not a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, but the Commanders' new QB1 is certainly the most talented signal-caller McLaurin has ever played with. The two just spent multiple days in Los Angeles throwing together, too, building chemistry and making up for the lost time when McLaurin was absent this spring during contract negotiations.

Entering his fourth NFL season, McLaurin remains Washington's most talented offensive skill player. He's also the best wideout Wentz, a seven-year NFL veteran, has ever played with. Both players have plenty of respect for one another, but more importantly, need each other to perform for Washington's offense to succeed.

So, given all these factors, McLaurin should have aspirations for a 1,200-1,300 yard season. The 1,000-yard mark should be the floor, and one I believe he could pass even before the team's Week 14 bye. Hammer the over.

Pete's Take: 

I'm tempted to just copy and paste Ethan's thoughts above into my section here, because he laid out everything perfectly. That'd be boring, though, my bosses probably wouldn't be thrilled and Ethan could potentially sue me for plagiarism. So I won't do it.

Instead, I guess I can ask: Why is this number so low?

For any NFL player prop, injuries are always a concern. One high-ankle sprain could be enough to ruin a guy's chances of going over a given total, while anything more severe than that is a certain death knell. 

McLaurin, however, is coming off of a 17-game season, and in his two pro go-rounds before that, he missed a combined three contests. So, he's rather durable, and if he's able to maintain that in 2022, 1,000 yards should be a formality. 

Maybe PointsBet is expecting McLaurin's deep-looking supporting cast — which is made up of Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, Dyami Brown, Cam Sims, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic and a couple of others — to eat into his work?

That's probably more of a concern for over bettors than an injury. If Jahan Dotson splashes onto the NFL scene, for example, and Curtis Samuel miraculously stays healthy, and the other pass catchers all earn Wentz's trust, then McLaurin might not be peppered with targets like he has been throughout his Washington career. 

Even so, McLaurin is simply too good not to get to four digits in terms of yardage. I'm sorry, he just is. No matter who emerges alongside him, he is still the unquestioned No. 1 threat, and besides, if others do prove to be useful, that'll only help take away the attention he's constantly facing from opposing defenses. 

Football is so uncertain, and the Commanders are especially so. However, Terry McLaurin is one piece of the sport I'll always trust, and I'm definitely not going to stop doing that in this instance. 

Editor's note: All odds are provided by our partner, PointsBet. PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

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