Here's How Much Economists Expect China's GDP to Grow This Year

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  • China's gross domestic product grew by 3% last year, missing the official target of around 5.5% due largely to Covid controls and the real estate slump.
  • The Chinese government is widely expected to announce on Sunday a GDP growth target of around or above 5% for the year.
  • The average estimate among economists is slightly higher, at 5.24%, according to CNBC analysis.

Now that China has ended its stringent Covid controls, the economy could return to growth of more than 5%.

China's latest factory data marked the highest reading in nearly eleven years, indicating further recovery ahead.

Beijing set an ambitious target of around 5.5% growth for 2022. But Covid controls and the real estate slump weighed heavily. China's GDP grew by only 3% last year.

On Sunday, the Chinese government is widely expected to announce a GDP growth target of around or above 5% for the year.

"This year a likely rebound in the housing market (as well as the exit from its 'zero Covid' policy) will help China's GDP growth to improve," said Societe Generale.

The bank is the most optimistic of firms surveyed by CNBC, with a GDP growth forecast of 5.8%.

Here's the full list of forecasts:

The average estimate among economists is slightly higher than the expected official target, at 5.24%, according to CNBC analysis.

Among the more bearish calls is Oxford Economics, with a 4.5% forecast.

"The tailwinds of reopening mean that authorities may not see it necessar[y] to do as much (or enact a massive stimulus package akin to past easing cycles), particularly after a year when public finances were already heavily stretched," Louise Loo, the firm's lead economist, said in a note.

Correction: This story has been updated to reflect BNP Paribas' latest forecast.

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