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CNBC Daily Open: Markets brace for key U.S. inflation gauge

A customer shops at a supermarket in Oregon.
Wang Ying | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Wall Street ends mixed
U.S. stocks ended mixed Monday as investors await key inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve's path on rate cuts. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 0.1% and 0.4% lower, respectively. The Dow was able to eke out a 0.1% gain. Bitcoin, meanwhile, extended gains and rose to another record to start the week.

China's valuations too low
Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group, said valuations of Chinese stocks are "way too low." While China's economic struggles have battered its stock markets, the strategist added investors "should be looking long-term at China again, it's definitely investible."

Oracle shares spike
Oracle shares surged 13% as quarterly earnings topped estimates, but revenue came in slightly soft of expectations. CEO Safra Catz said the company was committed to hitting previously stated goals of $65 billion in sales by fiscal 2026. "Some of these goals might prove to be too conservative given our momentum," he said.

Trump on TikTok ban
Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said efforts to ban Chinese-owned social media app TikTok in the U.S. only serves to empower Facebook. "Without TikTok, you can make Facebook bigger, and I consider Facebook to be an enemy of the people," Trump said in a CNBC interview.

[PRO] Barclay's three global picks
Barclays picked three European stocks for investors to consider buying for the next quarter. The bank's strategists noted they have a "high conviction" on the stocks since the "risk-adjusted returns are attractive" for these companies.

The bottom line

Wall Street is bracing for a key inflation gauge that will once again test markets.

February's consumer price index due today is pivotal for clues on the Fed's timing on rate cuts.

Headline inflation is expected to rise by 3.1% on an annual basis, based on economists' estimates.

Core inflation — which excludes volatile food and energy prices and seen as a better indicator of price trends — is expected to rise 3.7% year over year.

Markets got a nasty jolt when January's CPI came in higher than expected. If February's data also surprises on the upside that could reignite investor fears that inflation remains sticky and the Fed could delay lowering rates.

"The February CPI report today probably will be better than January's, because we expect smaller increases, or even outright declines in some of the components which caused trouble at the turn of the year," Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote in a note.

"But the consensus forecast for today's core numbers is a solid 0.3% — only nine of the 62 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey was 0.4% — and markets will be unhappy at an overshoot."

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is "not far" from cutting rates, but he reinforced the need for greater confidence that inflation is easing.

 The Fed chief faces a tough balancing act of trying to tame inflation without derailing the economy.

— CNBC's Jeff Cox contributed to the story.

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