How AP Rates the Presidential Race and the Road to 270

WASHINGTON (AP) — In the final days of the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton holds advantages over Donald Trump in just enough states to win her the White House — if she can hold them on Election Day.

But Clinton’s national lead appears to have narrowed in the last two weeks, and Clinton’s winning map appears more fragile than it once did.

The Associated Press this week moves New Hampshire from leaning Democratic to a toss-up, Arizona from a toss-up to leaning Republican, Virginia from strong Democratic to leaning Democratic, and Texas from leaning Republican to strong Republican.

The analysis is of the map as it stands today. It considers preference polling, recent electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel and on-the-ground staff.


SOLID DEMOCRATIC: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state (200 total electoral votes).

LEANS DEMOCRATIC: Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia (74 total electoral votes).

TOSS-UP: Florida, Iowa, Maine 2nd District, Nebraska 2nd District, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah (80 total electoral votes).

LEANS REPUBLICAN: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Missouri (40 total electoral votes).

SOLID REPUBLICAN: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming (144 total electoral votes).


Follow AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson on Twitter at:


Want to chart your own path along the Road to 270? Figure out how Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton can get the Electoral College votes they’ll need to win the White House with AP’s interactive map:

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