Even though there have been 88 or 89 homicides (depending on how you count) in the District so far in 2009, D.C. Police Chief Cathy Lanier is convinced that there will be fewer than a dozen more over the final three months of the year. Or at least that's what she told the Washington Times.
It's a bold claim, no doubt. One that represents a lot of faith in the deterrence efforts she has initiated with the All Hands on Deck weekends and tactics. And while violent crime is down in the city, the same is true nationwide, meaning those same initiatives aren't necessarily responsible for the entire decline.
So, even though crime lessens as the cold weather sets in, it would take quite the statistical anomaly for Lanier's prediction to be met.
Of course, murderers are very seldom spurred toward grave acts by the desire to drive up a city's crime statistics, so the inherent danger to the community by making this prediction is minimal. The potential embarrassment if it doesn't work out might not be.